2026-01-08 07:26:10

What is Japan's influence in the upstream materials market of the global semiconductor industry? Roughly speaking, it accounts for about 50% to 60%. Our reliance on these materials was also quite high, especially for high-end materials, with import ratios even exceeding 90%. In other words, the space and urgency for domestic substitution are now very clear.

A series of recent events are essentially accelerating the push for industry chain independence and controllability. Everyone can feel this driving force.

My personal approach is to enter the market gradually and prudently. Today, I added another 10,000 yuan, buying semiconductor material products from a leading fund. In just three days, the increase reached 20%, which indeed reflects the market's recognition of this sector. However, I remain cautious about the continued upward trend. Instead of making a large, one-time investment, I prefer to invest gradually, like 10,000 yuan at a time—so even if there are pullbacks, my mindset won't be too affected. This pace, whether in terms of psychological resilience or risk management, feels more comfortable for me.

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RetiredMiner

· 01-11 05:41

The chip replacement wave does have potential, but a 20% increase in three days feels a bit fake.

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RooftopReserver

· 01-09 11:39

The bottleneck issues in Japan need to be tackled gradually; domestic alternatives are already in the game. Investing steadily with increments of 10,000 is safe; no fear of falling. A 20% return looks good, but the future direction still depends on how things unfold. The track is heating up, but don't get cut too harshly.

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BuyTheTop

· 01-08 07:56

The issue of Japan's chokehold is something we must pay attention to; domestic substitution is imminent. Investing tens of thousands into it is real, much more comfortable than all-in; maintaining a stable mindset is the prerequisite for making money. This wave of semiconductor materials is a bit hot; a 20% increase in three days, be careful not to be the bagholder yourself. The path of localization is long; there's no rush. Gradually deploying is fine. The 90% import dependency figure looks frightening, but there are only a few companies truly capable of substitution; we still need to select carefully. Buying in batches reduces psychological pressure during pullbacks; I also prefer to play this way. Japanese material manufacturers are so strong; what are we competing with? Just persistence and policy support. Talking up semiconductors, but it still burns money; the threshold for this track is too high. A cautious attitude is correct, but a 20% return is indeed tempting; it all depends on whether you can hold on in the future.

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Layer2Observer

· 01-08 07:53

I have to question the data of 50% to 60%, what is the original source? We need to clarify this before continuing the discussion. The idea of staggered entry is indeed solid, but a 20% three-day increase usually also hides quite a bit of bubble components. The issue of Japan's material bottleneck does exist, but from an engineering perspective, the replacement cycle will be much longer than expected. Raising funds step by step like this is fine, but you need to be cautious of policy changes and market sentiment reversals. Managing mindset is important, but there also needs to be a clear understanding of the long-term logic of the track itself—don't be blinded by short-term gains.

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fren.eth

· 01-08 07:49

Japan's bottleneck is indeed critical; 90% import dependence can't be changed overnight. --- Gradually entering the market is still reliable. I’ve been doing it step by step at this pace of ten thousand, and I feel good about it. --- A 20% increase in three days? Crazy, but I still want to wait and see. I have a feeling there’s still room for a pullback later. --- Domestic substitution should have been accelerated long ago. Now it’s like we’re being forced to speed up. --- I don’t dare to go all-in, cautious but aiming to survive longer—that’s the logic.

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PonziDetector

· 01-08 07:42

Japan's 50-60% indeed hits a bottleneck, but whether our replacement speed can keep up is another matter. Adding ten thousand each time, it's stable, but I'm just worried about regretting it later. This wave of gains is frightening, feels a bit overhyped? 20% in three days, wow, it's no wonder something might go wrong. Gradually getting in is indeed reliable, much better than going all-in and not sleeping well in the middle of the night.

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