Don't be fooled by the story that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates. The market logic is much more complex than you think.

Look at what has happened recently: as soon as US employment data is released, everyone says "The economy is bad, the Fed will loosen policy, and Bitcoin will take off." It sounds convincing, but the problem is—Bitcoin has already risen from $87,600 to $91,000. That happened long ago. When the news comes out, the price has already moved ahead.

This is the real market truth: traders are never trading what has already happened, but what they think will happen—things that haven't happened yet but everyone expects will happen. By the time economic data floods the news, smart money has already exited. Historically, the moment a rate cut is officially announced, it often signals a sell.

There's also a detail most people overlook—the impact of rate cuts on Bitcoin depends entirely on the economic environment at the time. If the economy is only mildly slowing down? Rate cuts might actually benefit risk assets. But what if the economy slips into recession? Funds will flow into safe-haven assets like government bonds and gold, and Bitcoin will be sold off instead.

Don't forget what the Fed's real goals are: controlling inflation and stabilizing employment, not boosting Bitcoin. If inflation data rises later on, and employment remains weak, the Fed might stay put regardless. At that point, market sentiment can flip instantly.

One last point: rushing in at the sight of negative data often results in the biggest losses. The market is always at least two steps ahead of your perception. Relying on one or two data points to make investment decisions is just gambling.