2026-01-08 07:21:28

At the beginning of the new year, Bloomberg Commodity Index's annual rebalancing has become the top variable in the commodity market. This adjustment, which started last Thursday and continues until January 14, has been progressing at a trading pace of about 20% daily. Following the logic of "selling strong assets and buying weak assets," it has directly disrupted the capital distribution in the precious metals and energy sectors.

According to analysis from Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CIBC), the best-performing precious metals last year have become the main targets of this rebalancing. Silver faces selling pressure of $7.1 billion, while gold has been listed for sale with $7 billion, meaning that over five days, the precious metals sector has had to absorb a cumulative technical sell-off of over $14 billion. More painfully, even though silver recently hit a historic high and saw active trading, the volume involved in this rebalancing still accounts for 17% of its March futures open interest—enough to explain the recent phased decline in silver.

Risk alerts have been issued by multiple institutions. Société Générale pointed out that gold and silver together account for 11% of the Bloomberg Commodity Index, and as the two best-performing assets so far in 2025, they pose the greatest risk in this rebalancing. TD Securities more directly predicted that 13% of open contracts in the COMEX silver market will be liquidated within two weeks, potentially triggering a significant correction.

However, the long-term attitude of institutions toward precious metals remains unchanged. CIBC emphasized that the current price pressures are purely due to technical rebalancing of the index, and the fundamentals have not weakened. Saxo Bank also believes that gold and silver, as safe-haven assets for the global economy, are not fundamentally affected by short-term fluctuations. In other words, this wave of price declines is more an automatic execution of algorithmic trading rather than a genuine market judgment on the prospects of precious metals.

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gas_fee_therapist

· 01-11 03:19

It's the same old trick again, index rebalancing causing a sell-off. Institutions keep selling while claiming the fundamentals are fine—it's hilarious. A technical sell-off of $14 billion has kept silver suppressed... It's truly absurd. Algorithmic trading is just a machine for creating bagholders; this time, precious metals are the ones taking the hit. So, in the short term, we still need to wait. If this correction is in place, it could actually be a good entry point. Bloomberg's move is really ruthless, using the strongest assets as sacrificial lambs...

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BasementAlchemist

· 01-08 13:36

Haha, it's another robot dumping the market, truly unprincipled. $14 billion in technical sell-offs, this pace is brutal, are retail investors just being harvested? Even the all-time high in silver can't save it; index rebalancing is like a knife. As long as the fundamentals haven't collapsed, there's no need to panic; it's all just programmed trading tricks. This kind of plunge is probably a buying opportunity; I'm still optimistic in the long term. Programmed trading is really incredible, fighting itself. $14.1 billion dumped, isn't it ruthless enough? Let's keep watching the show next week.

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YieldWhisperer

· 01-08 07:51

Again with the "technical breakdown" explanation, do they really think retail investors are fools? With $14 billion poured in, who believes this isn't genuine selling? --- Silver hits a new all-time high but is being sold off aggressively. The index rebalancing logic is truly ridiculous... Making money is tough, brothers. --- Wait, Bank of Nova Scotia says the fundamentals haven't weakened? Then why are my positions still falling? Are fundamentals really that important? --- Automated trading interprets this automatically, basically just an excuse for big players to harvest small investors. --- 13% of open contracts cleared in two weeks... This number looks really uncomfortable, feels like a big wave is coming. --- Haha, everyone says it's a safe haven tool, but it still gets hammered. What safe haven? It's just a cash cow for the harvesters. --- The question is, after the short-term correction, will there be a bottom-fishing opportunity? Or is it better to keep observing for stability? --- Bloomberg index rebalancing causes this kind of situation. The game rules are just too unfair. --- I just want to know, after the index rebalancing, will there be a rebound? According to the script, it should. --- Precious metals are really hard to understand this time. Even though the fundamentals are fine, they keep getting pushed down by technicals.

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just_here_for_vibes

· 01-08 07:51

It's the index rebalancing again causing trouble, with $14 billion in technical selling... This is outrageous. Hmm, short-term fluctuations are just that, in the long run gold and silver are still safe-haven assets. Silver's all-time high couldn't even hold, indicating that algorithmic trading is indeed a fierce beast. Wait until the rebalancing is done before jumping in; right now, you're just a bagholder. The recent correction in precious metals is a bit harsh, but the fundamentals are fine—maybe an opportunity to buy in? Can mechanical adjustments like the Bloomberg index really cause such a big wave... Is the market this fragile? $14 billion in selling pressure, no wonder silver has dropped so much recently. Looks like I’ll have to wait.

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StablecoinSkeptic

· 01-08 07:49

It's the old routine of index rebalancing again, who can stop the $14 billion from pouring in? Algorithmic trading is so brainless, regardless of fundamentals, just sell first and ask questions later. Silver hits a new historical high but is sold off? That logic is ridiculous, a typical case of technicals crushing fundamentals. Talking about long-term value, but short-term positions are cleared by 17% and open interest reduced; let's see next week. Bloomberg's rebalancing mechanism is really a trap, it happens every year. Wait until the market calms down before bottom-fishing; jumping in now just works for institutions.

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SelfSovereignSteve

· 01-08 07:48

It's the same old index rebalancing trick, with $14 billion in sell orders hitting the market, and algorithmic trading starting to go into a frenzy. Silver hits a new all-time high but is suddenly cut, which is quite a logic... But as long as the fundamentals haven't collapsed, is there a buying opportunity? This move by Bloomberg is really helping us target retail investors for a clear-out. This short-term pullback is a fake fall; in the long run, the safe-haven status of gold and silver won't change, believe it or not. The commodity market in January is so chaotic; let's wait and see what other turbulence is coming next.

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ponzi_poet

· 01-08 07:34

Is $14 billion still considered a sign that the fundamentals haven't changed? Isn't this just algorithmic trading harvesting retail investors? During times of currency devaluation, I’m not worried even if gold and silver fall sharply; in the long run, these two still dominate. Bloomberg index rebalancing is really ruthless; the logic is to chase gains and cut losses, no wonder institutions are taking advantage. Silver with 17% open interest was cleared within a week; this wave indeed hurts, but honestly, such technical dips are actually buying opportunities. As long as the fundamentals haven't deteriorated, it's a signal; the bullish logic remains, waiting for a rebound. This is why you should avoid rebalancing periods of index funds; it's too easy to get trapped. It feels like they intentionally dump the market to trigger retail stop-losses, while institutions are accumulating at the bottom. Gold’s safe-haven attribute is evident; no matter how hard it falls, it can't change that, just waiting to see a reversal. The $14 billion false prosperity is just a capital game; fundamentals are still the way to go. In the short term, technical dips are real, but don’t chase short positions right now; you might get hammered by a rebound.

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BitcoinDaddy

· 01-08 07:29

$14 billion worth of technical dump... That's why you shouldn't go all in on a single asset, brother. Silver hitting a new high but getting hit the hardest? Rebalancing the index is really a huge irony. A short-term bloodbath, institutions are still saying the fundamentals are fine. Why do I feel a bit虚呢? TD Securities said they cleared 13% of未平仓 in two weeks... Wait, let me see if my orders are in that 13%. The index rebalancing will definitely have more fluctuations. Brothers who are buying at low levels, hang in there. $14 billion being dumped just like that, algorithmic trading really doesn't hold back. But on the other hand, the long-term logic for yellow, white, and platinum still holds. It's just a matter of who can hold out till the end. Is the technical side causing the drop? I choose to believe what the institutions say... Anyway, I can't run out either, haha. This rhythm is just ridiculous. Just after hitting a new high, it turned around and got hammered back. No one can escape the毒手 of the index.

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