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Ladies and gentlemen, there's a major event to watch tonight — the US December ADP Employment Report (Small Non-Farm Payrolls) is coming out.
Why is this data so important? Simply put, it can serve as an early indicator of the strength or weakness of the official non-farm payroll report on Friday, directly influencing whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates next. The market expects an increase of 470,000 jobs in December, showing some improvement from November.
The impact of the data is quite direct: if it exceeds expectations (>470,000), the US dollar will appreciate, and risk assets like gold and Bitcoin may face pressure; if it falls between 300,000 and 470,000, the market will likely remain stable as everyone waits for the official data on Friday; if it doesn't reach 300,000, expectations for rate cuts will heat up, and risk assets might rebound, but caution is needed for subsequent selling pressure.
Currently, market expectations for a rate cut in January are already quite low. An interesting logic — after all the negative news has been priced in, unless the ADP data is particularly strong, it might actually trigger a rebound. Market focus is shifting, with more and more people paying attention to Trump's attitude toward the next Federal Reserve Chair.
If you're a retail investor, these tips are still worth considering:
Expect significant volatility 30-60 minutes before and after the data release, and avoid blindly chasing gains or cutting losses. Be clear on where Bitcoin's weekly support and resistance levels are. Most importantly — control your position size. Before the data is released, either hold a light position or keep cash. Keeping powder dry is smarter than chasing quick profits.
Overall, tonight's ADP data will be a litmus test for market sentiment. During this critical period of the Federal Reserve's policy shift, this data could ignite the market. But for retail investors, it's best to stay patient before the data is released, protect your principal, and wait for real opportunities — that’s the safest approach.
Damn, every time before big data releases I silently remind myself "don't chase the rally," but I still end up chasing
If this wave drops below 300,000, my short positions can sleep well
The rate cut expectation has been fully priced in, so the rebound should be fierce
The key is what Trump will say, that’s the biggest variable
The expert is right, coming out with a small position alive is much better than exploding with a full position
The 470,000 figure feels uncertain, neither too strong nor too weak, just the most annoying kind
Sounds like tonight is a gamble to see who can hold through the volatility period
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The number 470,000 sounds a bit虚, anyway I am holding a light position and waiting.
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While others are fearful, I am greedy, but the premise is to survive until that day, haha.
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How many times have I said to control the position? Every time I get caught at the bottom, is it my fault?
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Trump running for Federal Reserve Chair is more exciting than the data itself.
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Don't touch within 30-60 minutes, I’ve learned my lesson this time.
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Lower interest rate expectations are low, but it actually rebounds? The market just loves to go against expectations, right?
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It's another acid test, every day is a关键时刻, I am already麻了.
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Is it good news or bad news? Feels like I can lose money no matter what.
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No idea where the weekly support for Bitcoin is, what am I even talking about trading?
Really, just waiting to be crushed
I've already cleared my positions, now just see how Trump will mess around
Retail investors are just leeks, no one can admit it
Can this rebound last until Friday? I can't bet on it
Feels like Trump's move has disrupted the original rhythm
The 30-60 minute fluctuations, I got cut last time, and this time I'll pass
With such low expectations for rate cuts, I'm actually a bit afraid of a rebound
Having a smaller position definitely helps me sleep better; preserving the principal is more important than anything