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Last year, gold delivered its best performance since 1979, and silver surged nearly 150%. As the new year begins, can this rally continue? Wednesday's market performance sent a somewhat cautious signal.
Spot gold briefly fell below the $4,450 level, and silver dropped over 3%. Although it has still gained 10% since the beginning of the year, short-term correction pressures are clearly building. Platinum and palladium, the "supporting actors," performed even worse, with intraday declines of over 7% and 5%, respectively.
Where is the problem? The broad commodity index is undergoing widespread rebalancing. Passive tracking funds are forced to adjust their holdings to accommodate the new weightings, which means a large amount of capital must flow out. Specifically, the adjustments in the two major commodity indices are expected to cause $6.8 billion in outflows from gold futures contracts, with similar outflows from silver futures. This mechanical selling pressure, combined with technical market adjustments, has created the current downward trend.
But the real drama is still ahead. Traders are now focusing on a series of key US economic data releases, especially the December employment report due this Friday. How hot is this data? The Federal Reserve will need to cut interest rates by more than one percentage point throughout 2026, which means any economic fluctuations could trigger a reassessment.
Interestingly, Wall Street remains bullish on precious metals. Institutions have divergent expectations: in a baseline scenario for Q1, gold prices could reach $4,200 per ounce, then fall back to $3,700 by year-end; but in a more optimistic scenario, prices could surge to $4,500 in Q1 and even hit $5,000 by year-end. Overall, the average gold price in 2026 is projected to be $4,538 per ounce. Silver has more room to grow, with peak levels possibly reaching $135–$309 per ounce. Some also believe gold could directly push toward $4,800.
The short-term reduction in passive fund holdings has created buying opportunities, and in the medium term, gold remains the best hedge in an investment portfolio. Uncertainty in economic data and policy expectations are the strongest drivers pushing these safe-haven assets higher.
Friday's employment data is expected to be explosive as usual; let's see who panics then.
Silver up 150%, and now it's falling? Typical passive funds cutting the chives; I'm just waiting to buy the dip.
Gold price at 5000? Wall Street folks don't tell the truth, but as long as the direction is right, that's fine.
Short-term correction pressure is just a small thing; in the long run, precious metals are the ultimate safe haven.
When everyone is selling off, that's the real opportunity. If I don't buy this wave, I'll be stupid.
Economic data plunges, gold soars—this routine has been effective for so many years.
After more than a year of rise, finally able to buy the dip. Let's see if Friday's employment data is strong enough.
Can gold really reach $5000? Feels like the institutions are quite confident.
Silver has surged 150%. I feel heartbroken about this decline.
Mechanical selling, I saw it coming a long time ago. Just waiting to scoop up the bargains.
The Fed's rate cut expectations are supporting the market. Let's stay cautious.
I heard someone went all-in waiting for gold to hit 4800. That’s a bit too bold.
The rate cut cycle isn't over yet. Gold still has room to run.
Forget it, sticking to the holdings. Short-term pullbacks are not a big deal.
Economic data is more important than ever. We must keep an eye on the news constantly.
It's hard to say whether this wave can be caught.
Is the expectation for the $5,000 level serious? I feel like it's just a pie in the sky.
Let's wait for employment data; that's the real test.
Outflow of 6.8 billion, it's still quite painful in the short term.
Wait, $6.8 billion outflow? How many retail investors have to take the hit?
Looking at Wall Street's expectations, $5,000? I feel like they're just hyping it up.
Now should be the time to buy gold at the bottom, the opportunity is here.
Silver has surged 150%, but a rebalancing caused a 3% drop. Luckily, I didn't chase the high earlier.
Once the employment data was released, gold prices instantly decided life or death. I'm afraid of this Friday.
In the short term, it looks like a decline, but in the long term, isn't it still the first choice for risk hedging?
Mechanical selling is the most annoying; genuine demand is still there.
Wait, they say the baseline scenario is 4200, optimistic is 5000? That's a big difference.
From 4500 to 5000? That's quite a boast. I'm just waiting for the day to prove you wrong.
The employment report this Friday—maybe it'll be another bloody storm. Maybe it's better to just lie low for now.
Silver up 150%? Those who bought in last year are already over the moon. Those taking over now are just unlucky.
If gold prices drop again, I'll start buying the dip. Anyway, a rebound is inevitable sooner or later, given the policy uncertainties.
Is Wall Street bullish again? Every time they do that, I bet against them, and I lose even faster, haha.
This wave of adjustment looks tough, but honestly, the opportunities are right here.
It's Friday again with employment data. Will there be another reversal this time? I really can't hold on anymore.
Wall Street says gold prices could hit 5000? Just listen, after the index adjustment, it should rebound.
Passive fund sell-offs are the best buying opportunities. The logic of precious metals as a safe haven still holds.
Silver has surged by 150% this wave, a calm correction is normal, it's just consolidating.
With such strong expectations of Fed rate cuts, gold will definitely keep rising. I am optimistic.
If gold really heads to 5000, I’ll turn things around.
Just worried that Friday’s employment data will cause trouble again; who can handle that uncertainty?
Silver up 150%, if it drops back, I’ll cry to death.
Anyway, there are short-term bottom-fishing opportunities, and I’m still optimistic in the long run, but it’s exhausting.
4800 or 5000, which one can I sleep peacefully over?
Passive funds reducing positions are just giving retail investors a chance, I’ve been waiting for this moment.
Gold is the real insurance, more reliable than anything else; I don’t trust other currencies.
If this market trend continues until the end of the year, that would be great, but it doesn’t seem that simple.
Rebalancing weights is just a way to scalp, the game rules within the system are really absurd.
Gold has a chance to reach $5000, and silver's surge is incredible—just waiting for Friday's employment data to trigger a rally.
$6.8 billion outflow, which actually signals a buying opportunity; institutions are bullish, so we're following suit.
This kind of safe-haven demand, with economic uncertainty looming, gold can't run away.
Short-term adjustments are just accumulation; those holding are already making a killing.
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Let's wait for the employment data; only then will we know if gold will rise or fall.
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Silver 150% is directly taking off; a correction now is very normal.
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Really, every time before major data releases, it's the same story. Mechanical selling should be the time to buy the dip.
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Wall Street is starting to hype again. Believe it or not, I have no money left anyway.
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$5000? Laughing out loud. If it returns to $3700 by the end of the year, I will have made a fortune.
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Just waiting for the Friday employment report; we'll see the real deal then.
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Passive funds are deadly; this might be a buying opportunity.
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Precious metals are still the most stable, much more comfortable than watching stocks.