Tonight, two major US employment reports will be released, and the crypto market's direction will depend on them. At 21:15 Beijing time, the December ADP employment figures (commonly known as the "small non-farm payroll") will be announced, followed by the November JOLTS job openings data at 23:00.

What are these two data points used for? Simply put, they are the "scouting team" for this Friday's US non-farm payroll report. The market will interpret these figures to speculate on the Federal Reserve's next move, and the Fed's monetary policy direction essentially determines the overall sentiment in the cryptocurrency market.

Looking back at the November ADP data, it was quite shocking—not only did it show no growth, but it actually contracted by 32,000. This result was far below market expectations, sparking widespread discussion about whether the US employment market is cooling down. Currently, the market generally expects a rebound in December, with forecasts of around 47,000 new jobs.

But what if this time the data presents a "black swan"? For example, if new jobs are less than 30,000 or if the figures continue to fall into negative growth territory—that would be interesting. Such results would reinforce market expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates. For risk assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum, this would significantly boost market sentiment. Additionally, if the JOLTS job openings data also falls short of expectations, it would serve as a double confirmation, making the market's anticipation of the Fed shifting to an easing policy by 2026 even more solid.