Tonight, two key data releases will directly determine the future trend of the crypto market.

At 21:15 Beijing time, the December ADP employment change data will be released, followed by the 23:00 JOLTS job openings data for November. These two indicators are the market's early indicators before Friday's non-farm payroll report. How the market interprets them will influence the Federal Reserve's next moves.

Looking back to last month, the ADP unexpectedly fell by 32,000, well below expectations. This time, the market generally predicts a rebound, expecting an increase of 47,000. However, if the actual figure is less than 30,000 or even turns negative again, expectations for rate cuts will intensify—this would be a positive signal for risk assets like $BTC and $ETH.

If the JOLTS data shows a significant decline, it will also reinforce expectations of the Fed shifting to easing in 2026. Simply put, weak data means accelerated rate cuts, which is a short-term positive for mainstream cryptocurrencies; conversely, strong data will suppress risk assets, causing the crypto market to suffer.

It’s especially important to note that the current relationship between the crypto market and traditional risk assets is somewhat abnormal—when stocks fall, sometimes the crypto market drops even more sharply. So when these data are released, don’t just look at the direction; be prepared for risk management.