I expect a meaningful move lower in the US 10-yr, and the chart is increasingly consistent with this view. If correct, it has broad implications for

- US equities
- Cost of capital
- Housing affordability (lower mortgage rates)
- Duration sensitive assets (growth stocks)

Yes, we have a triangle pattern and yes, there are higher lows. But, triangles are not directionally deterministic. How they're formed and how price behaves inside the triangle is much more important.

What makes this pattern bearish is you have:
1. Overlapping price action for ~3 years which is early distribution type of behavior. Each rally fails to generate sustained follow-through which is sign of exhaustion

2. Persistent rejection at structural resistances
- 20 consecutive weeks below ichimoku cloud
- 5 consecutive weeks below 55w EMA
- Repeated failures near the 0.786 / 0.887 fibs

Essentially, the market is struggling to price higher real rates sustainably and a downside break would act as a macro release valve for high-risk / growth names (think small caps / crypto) simply because

- Cash becomes less attractive
- Risk-free return expectations compress
- Capital has to move somewhere up the risk curve

Which means
- higher equity multiples / valuations
- Improved cost of capital for businesses
- Lower mortgage rates
- more risk appetite overall

@ChifoiCristian @cantonmeow @matthughes13 @Fibonacci_TA @MarketMaestro1 @bitcoindata21 @StonkChris