EUR to PLN Exchange Rate Analysis: What Traders Can Expect in 2025 and 2026

The Polish Złoty has surprisingly gained strength over the past three years – a development that many observers did not expect. Those who analyze the Euro to Złoty exchange rate quickly realize: The fundamental factors tell a much more complex story than superficial pessimism scenarios suggest. Let’s analyze which forces truly shape the PLN exchange rate.

Why the Złoty is currently showing strength

The current level of the EUR/PLN rate at around 4.27 Złoty per euro is by no means random. Behind this exchange rate development are concrete economic factors that traders need to consider.

Interest rate differential as a driver: With a key interest rate of 4.75 percent, Poland offers significantly more attractive returns than the Eurozone with its current 2.0 percent. This interest rate differential attracts capital flows and sustainably supports the Złoty. For carry-trade strategies, the EUR to PLN ratio thus presents an interesting playing field.

Labor market and growth: Poland’s current unemployment rate of 3.1 percent significantly undercuts the Eurozone’s (6.2 percent). GDP growth is expected to be 3.5 percent in 2025 and 2026 respectively – more than double the projected eurozone expansion of 1.2 to 1.0 percent. Such growth differences usually strengthen the weaker currency.

Counterarguments: Where the Złoty comes under pressure

However, there are also factors that could burden the Złoty:

Inflation in Poland is projected at 3.7 percent in 2024 and estimated to be 3.6 percent in 2025 – significantly above the eurozone’s (2024) 2.4 percent and 2.1 percent (projected 2025). This inflation could force long-term interest rate cuts, which would appreciate the euro to zloty rate again.

Poland’s public debt climbed to over 416 billion euros in Q2 2025 – an increase of 3.3 percent compared to the previous quarter. The upward trend in this area could unsettle foreign investors.

Additionally, geopolitical stress: As a direct neighbor of Ukraine, Poland bears the financial burden of nearly 70 percent employment rate of Ukrainian refugees, while military spending rises in parallel.

Technical signals for the EUR-PLN rate

The chart provides additional orientation points. After a three-year downtrend, a possible trend reversal has been indicated since March 2025. The rate has repeatedly bounced off a significant low – a classic sign of support levels.

Here, fundamentals and technical analysis meet: While economic factors lean towards sideways movement, the technical setup could be interesting for long positions on dips in the short term.

Scenarios for EUR/PLN 2025-2026

The analyst community is divided:

• Some expect a decline to the 4.20 EUR/PLN mark
• Others project upside potential up to 4.44 EUR/PLN by the end of 2026
• Erste Group forecasts a rate of 4.30 EUR/PLN for 2026

The Euro to Złoty ratio could therefore swing in all directions. Especially important: The intra-year fluctuations in 2025 show that this currency pair will remain volatile – ideal for active traders working with range trading.

Practical trading strategies

Several approaches emerge for the EUR/PLN rate:

Sideways approach: Expecting sideways movement, long positions at technical lows combined with exit targets at local highs are advisable. The daily ranges are moderate – relaxed trading without extreme volatility.

Carry trade: The interest rate differential of nearly 2.75 percentage points makes a long EUR/PLN position with rollover income attractive – provided technical signals support this direction.

Risk management: Regardless of the strategy, traders should account for the impacts of interest rate cuts or political surprises.

Conclusion

The Euro to Złoty rate in 2025 and 2026 will be shaped by a tension between Polish strengths (growth, interest rates, labor market) and structural risks (inflation, debt, geopolitics). There is no secure trend forecast – but that’s exactly what makes this currency pair interesting for traders. With proper risk management and flexible strategies, it is quite possible to profit from the EUR/PLN.