2026 Market Outlook: Where Will Leading Banks Predict Gold, Bitcoin, and Major Assets Head?

As markets shake off 2025’s volatility, what’s the consensus from Wall Street’s biggest players on where commodities, crypto, and equities are headed? Let’s decode the predictions.

The Precious Metals Story: Gold and Silver Leading the Charge

Gold delivered remarkable returns in 2025—up 60% for the year, the strongest performance since 1979. That surge was fueled by Fed rate cuts, relentless central bank accumulation, and persistent geopolitical flashpoints. Will this momentum carry forward?

According to the World Gold Council, the answer is largely yes. Should the Fed continue easing policy while geopolitical tensions remain elevated, gold could appreciate another 5–15% in 2026. In more aggressive scenarios involving economic slowdown and accelerated Fed cuts, the yellow metal could potentially climb 15–30%.

The major banks are singing from the same hymn sheet. Goldman Sachs targets USD 4,900 per ounce by end-2026, citing sustained central bank purchases and ETF demand. Bank of America takes an even more bullish stance, projecting USD 5,000/oz as U.S. fiscal deficits expand and debt burdens rise. Price targets across the Street cluster between USD 4,500 and USD 5,000.

Silver is stealing some of gold’s thunder. After surging far beyond gold’s gains in 2025, the Silver Institute highlights a structural supply crunch—industrial demand is robust, investment interest is recovering, and output growth is slowing. This imbalance could widen throughout 2026. UBS has raised its silver target to USD 58–60/oz with upside toward USD 65/oz. Bank of America similarly forecasts USD 65/oz.

Cryptocurrency: Bitcoin and Ethereum at a Crossroads

Bitcoin finished 2025 nearly flat after hitting historical highs earlier in the year. For 2026, the narrative becomes more complex.

Standard Chartered recently downgraded its Bitcoin price target from USD 200,000 to USD 150,000, reasoning that the crypto treasury movement may slow its accumulation pace—though ETF inflows should remain supportive (notably, USD 150,000 converts to approximately CAD 210,000–215,000 depending on exchange rates). Bernstein echoes this USD 150,000 call for 2026, though it remains constructive on the longer term, forecasting USD 200,000 by 2027.

Here’s the debate: Bernstein argues Bitcoin has broken its traditional four-year cycle and entered an extended bull market. Morgan Stanley disagrees, warning the cycle persists and the current rally is nearing exhaustion.

Ethereum swung more violently than Bitcoin in 2025, also finishing near flat. Yet institutional enthusiasm runs higher here. JPMorgan emphasizes the transformative potential of tokenization, which leans heavily on Ethereum’s infrastructure. Tom Lee, BitMain’s Chairman, is particularly bullish—he believes a tokenization supercycle is unfolding and predicts Ethereum will reach USD 20,000 in 2026, claiming the bottom was established in 2025.

Equities: Tech Keeps the Party Going

The Nasdaq 100 surged 22% in 2025, outpacing the S&P 500’s 18% gain and marking the third consecutive year of outperformance.

JPMorgan emphasizes that hyperscale data centre operators—Amazon, Google, Microsoft, Meta—will sustain elevated capital expenditure supporting AI infrastructure, with cumulative spending potentially reaching hundreds of billions by 2026. This spending wave should buoy Nasdaq 100 heavyweights like NVIDIA, AMD, and Broadcom.

The bank’s base case points to S&P 500 potential near 7,500 by 2026. Deutsche Bank is more optimistic, sketching scenarios toward 8,000 contingent on solid earnings and continued AI-driven capital allocation. Extrapolating these S&P targets suggests Nasdaq 100 could break 27,000.

Forex Dynamics: Dollar, Yen, and Euro in Flux

EUR/USD climbed 13% in 2025—its best year in nearly eight years—riding dollar weakness. For 2026, diverging monetary policy could push further appreciation: the Fed is cutting while the ECB holds steady. JPMorgan and Nomura target 1.20 by year-end; Bank of America is more constructive at 1.22. Morgan Stanley offers a contrarian view—it expects EUR/USD to rally initially to 1.23, then retreat to 1.16 in the second half as U.S. growth outperforms.

USD/JPY presents a more fractured outlook. The pair ended 2025 down approximately 1% despite initial weakness followed by a rebound. JPMorgan and Barclays see yen weakness persisting, with JPMorgan forecasting USD/JPY to 164 by year-end, arguing BOJ rate hike expectations are already baked in. Nomura and Citigroup take the opposite stance, contending that narrowing interest rate differentials will erode carry trade appeal. If U.S. data softens, unwinding could trigger sharp yen strength, potentially driving USD/JPY toward 140.

Energy: Oil Under Pressure

Crude oil plunged nearly 20% in 2025 as OPEC+ restored production and U.S. output rose. The outlook for 2026 tilts bearish, with oversupply risks predominating if OPEC+ keeps taps open and global demand growth slows.

Goldman Sachs outlines a downside scenario with WTI averaging around USD 52/barrel and Brent near USD 56/barrel. JPMorgan similarly highlights weakness, projecting WTI near USD 54/barrel and Brent around USD 58/barrel under sustained surplus conditions.

Bottom Line: The 2026 consensus favors commodities and equities over energy, with crypto sentiment divided between structural bull thesis believers and cyclical exhaustion skeptics. Gold and silver offer defensive appeal, tech equities promise continued AI-driven gains, and forex volatility will likely hinge on Fed versus global central bank divergence.