Gold in 2025-2026: When the price breaks through $4,000 and continues upward

The Battlefield Scene of the Gold Market’s Turmoil

The year 2025 is the year the world has seen gold hit new record highs continuously. As October arrives, gold prices have entered an unprecedented territory, breaking through the psychological barrier of $4,000 per ounce, and on October 20, 2025, the price reached an all-time high of $4,181 per ounce.

Compared to the beginning of 2025, gold has risen over 66% in just 7 months, reflecting an acceleration driven by unprecedented buying pressure. For the Thai market, 96.5% gold bars have already surpassed 62,000 baht per baht of gold, making the previous target of 55,000 baht by experts just a mid-range goal.

Why is the Gold Phenomenon Happening: Four Pillars Driving the Market

Trade Tensions Reach a Deadlock

The global economy is suffering from import tax issues. President Trump has blocked the plan to impose a 100% tariff on Chinese goods, effective November 2025. This move is a response to controls on the export of rare minerals and other technologies. Uncertainty has led investors to turn to gold as a safe haven for diversification.

Central Bank Interest Rate Cycle

The US Federal Reserve (Fed) has begun lowering interest rates, reducing by 0.25% in September 2025, with further cuts expected next month. This rate cut has caused the dollar to weaken, making gold in other currencies more attractive. Additionally, lower interest rates reduce the cost of holding gold, which does not generate interest income like other assets.

Global Financial Centers Accumulating Gold

The most significant factor is the confidence of central banks in gold. Over the past 3 years (2023-2025), central banks worldwide, especially in emerging markets, have net purchased over 1,000 tons of gold annually, continuing into 2025. This accumulation aims to diversify away from US dollar dependence (De-dollarization). After the Russian central bank’s asset freeze in 2022, global gold reserves now stand at approximately 36,699 tons, the highest in decades.

BRICS Digital Currency Backed by Gold

BRICS is preparing to launch a digital currency backed by gold for use as an exchange rate among member countries. This challenges the dominance of the US dollar and reflects efforts by various nations to reduce reliance on the dollar.

Perspectives from Global Financial Institutions: Predictions from Wall Street Giants

Goldman Sachs Shows Extreme Bullishness

Wall Street’s leading indicator bank has revised its gold price target to $4,900 per ounce by the end of 2026, up from the previous target of $4,300. Analyst Lina Thomas and her team at Goldman Sachs state that the main drivers are strong demand from central banks and inflows into gold ETF funds. They also revised their gold price forecast for the end of 2025 from $2,890 to $3,300 per ounce.

UBS Analyzes with a Nuclear Approach

This Swiss indicator bank expects gold to reach $3,500 per ounce in December 2025. Joni Teves, UBS strategist, states that the key factor is unprecedented central bank gold accumulation, with global central banks purchasing over 1,200 tons in 2024 alone.

Thai Institutional Assessment

Adjusting Goldman Sachs’s $4,900 target to the Thai 96.5% gold price, domestic gold could surge to 75,000-80,000 baht per baht of gold by 2026. Although profit-taking may occur along the way, the strategic trend remains upward.

Side Risks: Factors That Could Turn the Game Around

If Tax Negotiations Succeed

If the US and China can sign a trade agreement, gold prices could reverse suddenly, as trade tensions are the seedbed for demand for safe-haven assets like gold.

Profit-Taking Pressure

After a strong 8-week rally, investors may start to sell off. Heavy selling pressure could cause pain in the market, especially when RSI indicators show overbought conditions.

Dollar Recovery

If US economic data shows unexpected strength and the Fed pauses rate cuts, the dollar could strengthen again, making gold priced in dollars more expensive for buyers in other currencies.

Higher-than-Expected Interest Rates

If inflation remains stubborn and the Fed keeps interest rates high, it could dampen gold’s appeal, as gold does not provide interest income.

Technical Tools: RSI, Fibonacci, and Trends

Price Surge ( and Momentum

Gold prices surged over $250 per ounce in just a few days, reflecting increased buying and positive signals for the next trend.

) RSI in Overbought Zone

The RSI indicator for gold is in the overbought zone. While this may warn of a short-term correction, continued buying pressure and high RSI could indicate a resilient bullish trend.

Three Market Phases: Public Participation Phase

According to technical analysis theory, markets have three phases: Accumulation, Public Participation, and Distribution. Gold appears to be in the Public Participation phase, indicating that the public is starting to buy and sell, with potential for prices to continue rising.

Candle Pattern: Warning Signs

A Shooting Star pattern has been observed, which may indicate a short-term reversal. However, in a strong upward trend, this correction could be just a temporary pause.

Financial Institutions Show Strategies for Market Players

Buy the Dip: Cyclical Approach

Since the main trend is upward, traders may wait for a correction to buy in. The first support target is around $3,859 ###October( or a key point at $3,782, with stop-loss below the next support level, and aiming for the next resistance or high point.

) Breakout Retest: Confirmation After Breakthrough

After breaking the psychological level of $4,000, a retest may occur. Traders can wait for the price to revisit $3,980–$4,000 and buy when a bullish candlestick pattern appears.

Fibonacci Retracement: Mathematical Levels

Draw Fibonacci retracement from the start of the upward move ###around $3,500( to the high )$4,059(, then look for the 38.2% or 61.8% retracement levels as potential buy points.

Closing Remarks: Gold Has a Long Way to Go but Must Wait for the Right Moment

2025-2026 is the era of real gold. Leading financial institutions forecast prices could soar to $4,900 per ounce, implying Thai gold prices might eventually reach 75,000–80,000 baht per baht of gold.

However, gold remains a highly sensitive asset, requiring constant monitoring of changing factors. For those planning to sell gold now, the advice is to wait for a slight correction before buying, and to set support and stop-loss points. Trading gold demands patience and solid planning, so even if the market turns unexpectedly, well-prepared investors will stand firm.