Gold in 2025-2026: What lies behind the climb from $3,000 to $4,000, and where will it stop

Factors Supporting Gold Prices: When the World Turns to Rely on the Safest Assets

Gold prices are not driven up randomly or by luck, but are the result of multiple factors converging, making investors worldwide see gold as an unavoidable choice at this time.

Geopolitical Tensions: Trade Wars Drive Investors to Gold

The US and China are in the midst of the most severe trade conflicts in decades. Recently, President Donald Trump announced a 100% tariff increase on imports from China starting November 1, 2025, in retaliation for China’s control over rare minerals and technology exports. The increasing global economic uncertainty has led investors to seek safe assets, with gold being the most obvious choice.

Central Banks Worldwide: Major Buyers Still in the Game

From 2022 to 2024, central banks from emerging markets have purchased over 1,000 tons of net gold per year for three consecutive years. This buying has not stopped but continues into 2025 as well. This behavior reflects a “de-dollarization” trend (De-dollarization), which became mainstream after Russia’s central bank assets were frozen in 2022. The result is the highest gold reserves in decades, approximately 36,699 tons.

Interest Rate Policies: Lower Rates Make Gold More Attractive

The US, under President Biden, has cut interest rates by 0.25% in September 2025, with expectations of further cuts in October and December. When interest rates fall, the dollar weakens, making gold traded in dollars more attractive to holders of other currencies. Additionally, gold does not generate interest income, so lower rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding it.

BRICS Group: Digital Currencies Backed by Gold

News indicates that BRICS is developing a (BRICS Digital Currency) backed by gold for use among member countries. This move directly challenges the role of the US dollar, adding another dimension to gold demand.

Current Price Situation: Gold Surpasses Expectations

The Numbers Speak Loudly

Gold prices (XAUUSD) broke through the psychological level of $4,000 per ounce and continued upward. On October 20, 2025, the price hit a historic high of $4,181 per ounce. Compared to early 2025, when prices were around $2,500, this is an increase of more than 66% in just 7 months.

It’s notable that the move from $3,000 to $4,000 took only 7 months, halving the previous period from 14 months to go from $2,000 to $3,000. This acceleration indicates strong buying momentum and deep market confidence.

( Local Situation: Thai Gold Breaks Through Target

In Thailand, 96.5% gold bars have risen past 62,000 Baht per baht weight, exceeding the original target of 55,000 Baht set by experts. This change has prompted analysts to revise their estimates upward.

Leading Financial Institution Forecasts: “The Uptrend Can Go Further”

) Goldman Sachs: Target $4,900 by End of 2026

Leading investment bank Goldman Sachs is very bullish on gold, stating that prices could sustain up to $4,900 per ounce by the end of 2026, higher than their previous target of $4,300. Analyst Lina Thomas points out that the main drivers are ongoing demand from central banks and large fund inflows into gold ETFs. For 2025, Goldman Sachs projects a year-end price of $3,300, compared to their previous forecast of $2,890.

UBS: Unprecedented Accumulation Movements

Swiss bank UBS also supports this trend, highlighting “unprecedented central bank gold accumulation patterns,” according to Joni Teves, UBS’s strategy expert. UBS further reports that global central banks bought over 1,200 tons of gold in 2025 to avoid over-reliance on the dollar alone.

In the Thai Perspective: Long-term Target of 75,000-80,000 Baht

Converting Goldman Sachs’s $4,900 target into Thai 96.5% gold prices suggests that Thai investors can expect gold prices to reach 75,000-80,000 Baht per baht weight in 2026, despite short-term profit-taking adjustments. Overall, the outlook remains bullish.

Technical Signals: Reading the Charts for Better Understanding

( Rapid Price Movements: Indicators of Growing Buying Power

Gold prices surged by $250 per ounce in just a few days, confirming signals of strong buying momentum and a positive sign for further acceleration.

) RSI Index: Overbought but Strengthening

The RSI of gold is in the overbought zone, which may warn of a short-term correction. However, if buying continues and RSI remains high, it indicates a strong and sustainable main trend.

( Market Structure in 3 Phases: In the Final Stage of High Participation

Technical analysis suggests the market has three main phases: )Accumulation###, (Public Participation), and ###Distribution###. Currently, gold appears to be in the Public Participation phase, with positive news and large capital inflows increasing demand, possibly indicating further upward movement.

Potential Risks That Could Change the Game: Watch Out for 4 Factors

1. US-China Trade Negotiation Developments

If negotiations to reduce trade tensions progress, gold prices could fall sharply, as geopolitical tensions are a key driver of the current rally.

2. Profit-Taking Risks (Profit Taking)

After a continuous sharp rise over 8 weeks, investors may start to take profits, especially if prices rise abnormally high and technical signals show overbought conditions.

( 3. US Dollar Recovery

If the US economy shows unexpected strength and the Fed decides to pause rate cuts, the dollar could strengthen, exerting downward pressure on gold.

) 4. Maintaining High Interest Rates

If inflation does not decrease as expected and the Fed keeps interest rates high, gold (which does not generate interest income) may lose its attractiveness.

Trading Strategies for Gold in the Current Situation

Technique 1: Buy on Pullbacks

Since gold is in a strong uptrend but has risen rapidly, there is a chance for short-term consolidation.

• Wait for the price to pull back to around $3,859 ###Support from October open( or $3,782
• Confirm with technical signals: RSI crossing near 50 or MACD showing reversal signals
• Set stop-loss below the next major support )around $3,750###
• Take profit at previous high ###$4,059( or resistance at $4,084-$4,113

) Technique 2: Test the Broken Resistance

After breaking through $4,000, a retest of support may occur.

• Wait for the price to decline to $3,980-$4,000
• Check if this support holds ###price rebounds with increased volume(
• Enter buy when a bullish reversal candlestick appears, with a stop-loss at $3,950
• Profit target: $4,100 or higher

) Technique 3: Use Fibonacci Levels

• Draw Fibonacci from $3,500 (lowest point) to $4,059 (high point)
• Look for buy signals at 38.2% or 61.8%
• Enter when the price approaches and shows reversal signs
• Set stop-loss below the next Fibonacci level

Summary: Where Will Gold Go Next?

Gold prices in 2025-2026 still have an upward trend according to leading global financial institutions. From Goldman Sachs to UBS, all agree that prices could reach $4,900 or even higher by 2026.

For Thai investors, this means the opportunity to see Thai gold prices sustain at 75,000-80,000 Baht per baht weight.

However, when trading in the highly volatile gold market, where buying and selling pressures shift, investors should remember:

✓ The market will remain high but may experience another correction. Timing entries carefully is crucial. ✓ Be prepared for volatility in investments. Don’t wait for prices to skyrocket. ✓ Use technical tools to aid decision-making rather than relying solely on intuition.

Ultimately, gold can continue upward because of many fundamental supporting factors, but that does not mean the path will be smooth. Patience in timing, risk management, and continuous analysis are keys to successful gold investing.