What is the probability of OpenAI acquiring Pinterest? Prediction markets are currently divided, with the stock price already up by 3%

Question

【Crypto World】The rumors that OpenAI might acquire Pinterest are getting more and more lively. The numbers in the prediction market are quite interesting—Kalshi traders are betting on a deal by 2027, with a 54% probability. But Polymarket is less optimistic, estimating only a 15% chance of a deal happening soon.

Following these rumors, Pinterest’s stock price rose about 3%, and the company’s valuation reached $17.5 billion. This platform should not be underestimated—600 million monthly active users and over $3 billion in annual ad revenue, primarily focused on visual inspiration content. For OpenAI, this is a strategic move into the content + commerce integration field.

However, Pinterest clearly isn’t lacking suitors. Meta and Amazon are also eyeing this lucrative opportunity. Who will ultimately get it depends on the subsequent negotiations.

MemeEchoer · Accepted Answer

Prediction markets are all gambling, Kalshi is optimistic, Polymarket is conservative, the gap is huge... Anyway, Pinterest was pulled up by this wave of rumors by 3%, guaranteed profit no loss.

Meta and Amazon are also jumping in to join the fun, will it end up turning into a power struggle again?

OpenAI really wants to take a big bite of this pie, Pinterest's 600 million monthly active users would be so attractive... Just thinking about it is exciting.

Polymarket only has a 15% probability? That's too cautious, these people just can't see through it.

600 million monthly active users and over 3 billion in annual revenue—just looking at these numbers explains why so many people want it... Who wouldn't be envious?

OnchainUndercover · Answer

54% vs 15% such a big gap? Feels like a gambler's mentality, everyone wants to take a shot

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Pinterest's valuation is really outrageous, just waiting for a few big players to swoop in

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Honestly, I don't believe these big projects will close deals next year; their actions are calculated on an annual basis

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Visual content is indeed a good thing, but if OpenAI really buys it, I don't even know how they would operate...

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$17.5 billion? Meta and Amazon's bids are definitely more aggressive, where does OpenAI get so much cash

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Just based on this 3% increase, retail investors are about to be harvested again; this deal is very risky

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How valuable are the reference figures in prediction markets? Feels like it's all based on guesses

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Having 600 million monthly active users is truly impressive; no wonder so many people are watching

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The disagreement between these two prediction markets shows that nobody knows for sure

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Content plus business? Is OpenAI really planning to pivot into e-commerce? That's a bit of an overreach

CodeSmellHunter · Answer

Both sides of the prediction market are betting, which is ridiculous. Kalshi says 54%, Polymarket only 15%, who would believe such a big difference?

Is OpenAI really planning to acquire Pinterest? Feels a bit greedy... Meta and Amazon are also eyeing it, and in the end, no one might get it.

A 3% increase is a small trend; wait until there's real confirmation before commenting.

WenAirdrop · Answer

The prediction market is so off... 15% vs 54%, it feels like a gamble on how crazy OpenAI's ambitions are.

StakoorNeverSleeps · Answer

It's the same story again. The prediction market shows such a huge difference in numbers, indicating that no one is really sure whether it will succeed or not...

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Is Pinterest worth it? They spent 17.5 billion on visual content, but it's probably better to just invest directly in model training data.

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The gap between Kalshi and Polymarket's numbers is so huge, I bet this trade is going to fail.

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60 million monthly active users sounds great, but can the advertising revenue really be worth 17.5 billion? That's a bit outrageous.

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OpenAI, Meta, and Amazon are all rushing in. It's normal that none of them end up winning in the end.

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Talking about content plus business, they still just want the data from those 60 million users. Stop pretending.

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54% versus 15%, this contrast is too outrageous. Either someone knows insider information, or it's just pure gambling.

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The recent rise of Pinterest is a dividend from information asymmetry. If the trade can't be executed properly, it will just fall back down.

SatoshiHeir · Answer

需要指出的是，预测市场的分歧本身就是个很好的论证——Kalshi的54%与Polymarket的15%，这不仅仅是数据差异，毋庸置疑反映了市场定价效率的深层缺陷。

根据以往的并购案例白皮书分析，科技巨头收购内容平台的成功率其实远低于市场预期。显而易见，OpenAI若真的想做内容+商业闭环，Pinterest那套广告体系对它来说是个鸡肋。

Meta和亚马逊也在看？笑了，这就更证明了价格虚高了。真正的价值共识应该建立在用户留存和商业模式的强度上，而不是一波传言。

3%的涨幅，说明市场还是信的。但技术本源告诉我们——追热点的人往往是最后的接盘侠。

What is the probability of OpenAI acquiring Pinterest? Prediction markets are currently divided, with the stock price already up by 3%

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