Lighter (LIT) Faces Significant Headwinds: Why Rollup Insiders Still See Buying Opportunity

Market volatility has taken its toll on Lighter’s derivatives performance. Following the recent token price swings, data suggests that open interest could contract by more than 20%, while trading activity might decline by over 30% in the near term. The current market backdrop—characterized by sideways price action and bearish sentiment across major assets—has put pressure on rollup-focused protocols and their associated tokens.

Yet despite these challenging conditions, some prominent voices in the rollup ecosystem remain optimistic. The founder of The Rollup project recently shared his perspective on LIT’s investment thesis, indicating that a buying opportunity could emerge if Lighter’s fully diluted valuation dips to approximately $2 billion. This contrasts with the token’s current metrics: as of early January 2026, LIT’s FDV stands at $2.81 billion, suggesting the project would need roughly a 29% contraction from current levels to meet that valuation threshold.

The statement reflects a broader trend among crypto strategists who view temporary market dislocations as entry points rather than exit signals. For rollup enthusiasts specifically, Lighter represents a key player in the derivatives space, and the founder’s comments hint at confidence in the protocol’s long-term value proposition. Whether LIT reaches that $2 billion FDV target will likely depend on both macro market conditions and the platform’s ability to retain trading volume during extended downturns.