#比特币市场周期 Seeing discussions about the altcoin season, I am reminded that many friends have been asking the same question recently: When will the market come back? In fact, this reflects a psychological trap that is easy to overlook.

Market opportunities never appear according to our preset timetable. As Arthur Hayes mentioned, the altcoin season is always ongoing; it's just that the participants are changing. Some make profits, some miss out, and some even suffer significant losses — the difference often isn't luck, but strategy.

This reminds me of an important tip: don't rush to chase the next opportunity just because you missed one. History doesn't simply repeat itself; effective tactics from last year may become ineffective this year. More importantly, when chasing highs, it's easy to ignore risks and push all your positions that should be for defense.

My advice is to maintain two habits: First, always be clear about your capital allocation — which parts are for stable foundations, and which parts are for exploring new opportunities, without confusion. Second, regularly review the projects you're truly involved in, rather than blindly following trends. The market is evolving, and our thinking needs to upgrade as well, but this upgrade should be steady and paced.

In the long run, maintaining a stable mindset and a scientific approach to layout are far more important than catching every wave.