Gensler's departure from the SEC: When could it happen and what does it mean for crypto

Following Trump’s victory in the 2024 presidential election, attention has intensified around the future of Gary Gensler in the SEC chair position. While Gensler himself has not yet confirmed his departure, analysts from 10X Research suggest that it could happen during December or January – a period that historically corresponds to leadership transitions at the top of regulatory agencies.

Historical Pattern of SEC Leadership Changes

As in the past, the most likely scenario appears to be clear. Jay Clayton, nominated by Trump, resigned in December 2020 just before Biden took office. His successor, Gary Gensler, then went through the confirmation process in April 2021. Similarly, Mary Jo White left her post on the day of Trump’s inauguration, although the process of selecting his new candidate took until May.

If the same pattern applies this time, it could mean that a new SEC chair could be appointed and confirmed by spring 2025. This timeframe would allow Trump to nominate a person with a different approach to digital asset regulation – aligning with his public promises to seek a replacement for Gensler.

Who Are the Main Candidates?

Discussions about Gensler’s successor are already in full swing. Among cryptocurrency supporters, Hester Peirce is seen as the favorite, known as the “Crypto Mom” for her more liberal stance on blockchain technologies and digital assets. Another leading candidate is Chris Giancarlo, often compared to the “Crypto Dad” – a supporter of a more flexible regulatory framework for the sector.

However, the situation could change if Trump’s nomination remains unchanged and Democrats still hold influence. In such a scenario, a more moderate choice like Chris Brummer might be considered, whose philosophy emphasizes a balanced approach – clear and fair rules without stifling innovation.

Bitcoin on the Rise in Anticipation of Changes

Market sentiment has recently reflected growing optimism. Bitcoin recently crossed the $75,000 mark, with some analysts speculating on a path to $100,000. However, the latest data shows the current price at $91,310 – signaling unprecedented market dynamics.

This significant increase is no coincidence. Investors and traders are clearly reacting directly to Trump’s historically favorable stance toward cryptocurrencies and the expected shift in regulatory approach, which could replace the current enforcement-focused strategy.

Perspective of a New Era in Cryptocurrency Regulation

If the new SEC chair indeed brings a change in approach, a new window of opportunity would open. Instead of the current penalizing approach, regulators could focus their efforts on creating clear and supportive rules. Such a shift would not only stabilize existing projects and businesses but also attract new players to the market – both innovators and larger institutional investors.

This development would position the USA more strongly in the global digital assets environment, with long-term geopolitical and economic implications. It remains to be seen who will ultimately take the SEC leadership and how these changes will shape the future of the crypto industry in the coming months.