Can Axos Financial (AX) Maintain Its Earnings Surprise Momentum?

Strong Track Record Sets Stage for Potential Beat

Investors eyeing reliable stock performers should pay attention to Axos Financial (AX), a bank holding company in the Zacks Financial - Miscellaneous Services sector that has demonstrated consistent ability to surpass profit expectations. Looking at recent quarterly results, the company has delivered impressive outcomes—last quarter’s earnings of $2.07 per share crushed the consensus estimate of $1.86, delivering an 11.29% upside surprise. The preceding quarter showed similar strength, with actual EPS of $1.94 against expected earnings of $1.82, translating to a 6.59% beat. These consecutive outperformances yield an average surprise rate of 8.94% over the two-quarter period.

What Recent Analyst Revisions Suggest

The momentum appears to be building further. Analyst sentiment has shifted positively toward Axos Financial ahead of its January 29, 2026 earnings release. The company’s Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) metric stands at +2.42%, reflecting that the most recent analyst estimates have ticked higher compared to the consensus baseline. This metric captures an important dynamic: analysts who adjust their forecasts immediately before earnings announcements typically possess fresher information than the broader consensus.

Combining Multiple Positive Signals

What makes Axos Financial particularly noteworthy is the alignment of two favorable indicators. The stock carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) rating paired with its positive Earnings ESP reading. Historical analysis demonstrates that securities featuring this combination—a positive Earnings ESP alongside a Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold) or better—produce earnings beats approximately 70% of the time. In practical terms, if an investor screens for 10 companies meeting these criteria, roughly seven would likely exceed their earnings estimates.

Important Context for Investors

While positive Earnings ESP readings improve the probability of positive surprises, they don’t guarantee results. Conversely, negative ESP readings don’t necessarily predict misses. Stock price movements also depend on factors beyond earnings beats alone—companies occasionally rise despite missing estimates or remain flat despite beating them. For investors seeking an edge, examining the Earnings ESP metric before quarterly releases can meaningfully enhance decision-making odds.

Industry Perspective

Zacks Investment Research has identified its top 10 stock picks for 2026. Historically, this curated portfolio demonstrates substantial outperformance, having gained approximately 2,530.8% between 2012 and November 2025—more than four times the S&P 500’s 570.3% return over the same period. These selections will be released on January 5.

For those seeking deeper fundamental analysis on Axos Financial and broader market strategy, comprehensive stock analysis tools and investment research resources remain available to inform portfolio construction.