So Good Judgement's superforecasters nailed 6 out of 9 predictions for 2025. Not perfect, but that's actually solid when you're forecasting geopolitical volatility and macroeconomic shifts. They've been tracking everything from the Ukraine conflict dynamics to global GDP expansion scenarios—the kind of macro backdrop that typically moves markets, including crypto.
What's interesting? Their hit rate suggests we should pay attention to what else they're flagging for the year ahead. Economic growth projections, geopolitical developments, these aren't just headline noise. They directly influence risk sentiment and capital allocation flows across digital assets.
The World Ahead breakdown covers their full 2025 outlook. If you're positioning your portfolio or trying to understand what macro forces might be at play, knowing where these forecasters see pressure points matters. Whether it's GDP momentum or unexpected geopolitical shifts, the macro environment remains the silent variable that often catches traders off guard.
This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.
15 Likes
Reward
15
6
Repost
Share
Comment
0/400
DefiPlaybook
· 01-07 11:18
According to data, a 6/9 hit rate is already excellent in the field of macro forecasting... But what’s more worth noting is whether these people will stumble again later? Based on on-chain data, the market’s pricing of geopolitical risks often lags by 6-8 weeks. From three dimensions—volatility, capital flows, and risk premiums—this time the pressure points they identified will indeed impact short-term crypto market allocations.
A 60% hit rate... These guys are really quite accurate. Macro predictions are like that; hitting half the time is already good. By the way, what are they optimistic about next? We should keep an eye on the geopolitical side.
View OriginalReply0
TokenTaxonomist
· 01-04 12:45
67% accuracy on macro calls? statistically speaking that's barely above a broken clock in volatile markets. let me pull up my spreadsheet—curious if they weighted geopolitical tail risks properly or just got lucky on the ukraine positioning. crypto moves on sentiment, not forecasts, so this matters way less than ppl think tbh
Reply0
GovernancePretender
· 01-04 12:38
6/9... Honestly, considering the hit rate, it's not bad in the prediction world. But I still want to see what those 3 pitfalls they stepped into are. Often, the things that go wrong can teach you more.
These people are indeed watching things that can shake the market. Ultimately, the ups and downs in crypto still depend on the macroeconomic outlook. There's no way around it.
View OriginalReply0
ApeShotFirst
· 01-04 12:36
Whoa, 6/9 hit rate? This guy's predictions are too accurate. I need to quickly see what else they are optimistic about.
So Good Judgement's superforecasters nailed 6 out of 9 predictions for 2025. Not perfect, but that's actually solid when you're forecasting geopolitical volatility and macroeconomic shifts. They've been tracking everything from the Ukraine conflict dynamics to global GDP expansion scenarios—the kind of macro backdrop that typically moves markets, including crypto.
What's interesting? Their hit rate suggests we should pay attention to what else they're flagging for the year ahead. Economic growth projections, geopolitical developments, these aren't just headline noise. They directly influence risk sentiment and capital allocation flows across digital assets.
The World Ahead breakdown covers their full 2025 outlook. If you're positioning your portfolio or trying to understand what macro forces might be at play, knowing where these forecasters see pressure points matters. Whether it's GDP momentum or unexpected geopolitical shifts, the macro environment remains the silent variable that often catches traders off guard.