2026 Market Outlook: Which assets will lead the next wave of gains?

The markets witnessed dramatic moves in 2025, leaving investors questioning what’s next across commodities, equities, crypto, and forex. Leading institutions are painting divergent pictures for 2026, with some asset classes poised for significant gains while others face headwinds.

Precious Metals Momentum: Gold and Silver as Safe Havens

Gold’s Historic Run Continues

Gold delivered its strongest annual performance in nearly five decades in 2025, surging 60% as the Federal Reserve cut rates, central banks accelerated purchases, and geopolitical tensions persisted. Looking ahead to 2026, the World Gold Council anticipates the momentum will extend, projecting gains of 5–15% under base-case scenarios, with potential for 15–30% upside in more dovish economic conditions.

Investment banks are overwhelmingly constructive. Goldman Sachs targets USD 4,900 per ounce, citing sustained central bank demand and ETF inflows. Bank of America takes an even more bullish stance, forecasting USD 5,000/oz as expanding fiscal deficits and rising government debt continue to underpin precious metals demand. Most major institutions cluster their price targets between USD 4,500 and USD 5,000.

Silver Outperformance Driven by Supply Tightness

Silver has emerged as the outperformer in precious metals, far exceeding gold’s gains in 2025. The Silver Institute warns of an ongoing structural supply deficit in global markets, driven by robust industrial demand, recovering investment interest, and constrained supply growth. This imbalance is expected to persist and potentially widen throughout 2026.

UBS raised its silver price target for 2026 to USD 58–60 per ounce, with upside potential to USD 65/oz. Bank of America similarly projects silver reaching USD 65/oz, reflecting confidence in supply-demand dynamics supporting higher prices.

Cryptocurrency Markets: Bitcoin and Ethereum at Inflection Points

Bitcoin’s Four-Year Cycle Debate

Bitcoin finished 2025 nearly flat after hitting record highs earlier in the year. The path forward remains contested among major institutions. Standard Chartered revised its price target downward to USD 150,000 (from USD 200,000), expecting Digital Asset Treasury to moderate bitcoin purchases, though ETF inflows should remain supportive.

Bernstein projects Bitcoin reaching USD 150,000 in 2026 and USD 200,000 in 2027, arguing the cryptocurrency has escaped its traditional four-year boom-bust cycle and entered an elongated bull market. Morgan Stanley disagrees, maintaining that the four-year pattern persists and warning the current bull run is approaching exhaustion.

Current market data shows Bitcoin trading at $91.41K with a +1.85% 24-hour movement as of early 2026, suggesting consolidation after prior volatility.

Ethereum’s Tokenization Opportunity

Ethereum experienced greater volatility than Bitcoin in 2025, also finishing near flat. However, institutions see substantial upside potential for 2026 rooted in tokenization trends. JPMorgan emphasizes the massive opportunity in tokenization, which leverages Ethereum’s blockchain infrastructure as the primary settlement layer.

Tom Lee, Chairman of BitMain, is particularly bullish, forecasting ETH reaching USD 20,000 in 2026 and characterizing 2025 as the bottom. He believes tokenization will spark the next major crypto supercycle. Current data shows Ethereum at $3.14K with +1.41% 24-hour gains, positioning it well above 2025 lows.

Equities: U.S. Tech Poised for Continued Growth

Nasdaq 100 Momentum Carries Forward

The Nasdaq 100 gained 22% in 2025, outpacing the S&P 500’s 18% rise and marking three consecutive years of outperformance. Most institutions expect this strength to persist in 2026, fueled by accelerating AI infrastructure investment.

JPMorgan highlights that hyperscale data center operators—Amazon, Google, Microsoft, and Meta—are expected to maintain elevated capital spending for years ahead, with cumulative investment potentially reaching several hundred billion dollars through 2026. This spending cycle should support Nasdaq 100 heavyweights including NVIDIA, AMD, and Broadcom.

JPMorgan outlines S&P 500 reaching 7,500 in upside scenarios, while Deutsche Bank presents even more optimistic paths toward 8,000 by year-end 2026, assuming sustained earnings growth and continued AI-driven investment. Based on these S&P targets, Nasdaq 100 could exceed 27,000 points in 2026.

Currency Markets: Divergent Paths for Major Pairs

EUR/USD: Climbing Higher on Rate Differentials

EUR/USD surged 13% in 2025—its largest annual gain in nearly eight years—as the dollar weakened and interest rate differentials shifted. For 2026, most institutions forecast further appreciation, supported by divergent central bank paths: Federal Reserve easing versus ECB rate maintenance.

JPMorgan and Nomura project EUR/USD reaching approximately 1.20 by year-end 2026. Bank of America is more aggressive, targeting 1.22. However, Morgan Stanley warns of potential reversal, forecasting EUR/USD initially climbing to 1.23 before retreating to 1.16 in the second half of 2026 as U.S. economic outperformance reestablishes dollar strength.

USD/JPY: Consensus Breakdown

USD/JPY finished 2025 down roughly 1% after initial weakness and subsequent recovery. 2026 outlooks are sharply divided. JPMorgan and Barclays expect yen weakness, with JPMorgan forecasting USD/JPY reaching 164 as Bank of Japan rate hike expectations are priced in and Japanese fiscal expansion pressures the currency.

Conversely, Nomura projects yen strength to 140, arguing that narrowing interest rate differentials will diminish carry trade appeal. Should U.S. macro data weaken, unwinding of yen carry positions could accelerate depreciation pressure on the dollar versus yen.

Energy Markets: Downside Risks Dominate

Crude Oil Faces Oversupply Headwinds

Crude oil plunged approximately 20% in 2025 as OPEC+ restored production and U.S. output increased. Looking into 2026, institutional forecasts skew bearish, with downside risks from persistent oversupply should OPEC+ maintain elevated output and global demand growth moderate.

Goldman Sachs outlines a bearish scenario with WTI crude averaging USD 52 per barrel and Brent around USD 56/barrel throughout 2026. JPMorgan similarly highlights downside potential, projecting WTI averaging near USD 54/barrel and Brent around USD 58/barrel contingent on sustained supply surplus conditions.

The Bottom Line

2026 shapes up as a year of mixed signals: precious metals appear well-supported, cryptocurrency markets show conflicting signals between leading institutions, U.S. equities remain resilient, currencies face complexity from divergent central bank policies, and energy markets face structural headwinds. Investors should position accordingly across their allocations.