Bitcoin fluctuates under institutional pressure; promising cryptocurrency market faces $250 million adjustments

The trading session on Tuesday sees Bitcoin facing significant resistance at US$ 90,000. With the asset quoted at US$ 91.44K (+1.87% in 24h), the inability to consolidate above this level keeps the market stuck in a narrow range, reflecting the conflict between recovered buying pressure and still substantial supply.

The technical level of US$ 90,000 remains a critical liquidity zone, accumulating sell orders from previous weeks. The frustrated recovery in this session reinforces the sideways trend, with concentrated volume but insufficient to definitively break this barrier.

Short positions in promising cryptocurrencies reach concerning levels

A significant movement is happening behind the scenes: major operators have positioned US$ 250 million in shorts involving Bitcoin, Ether, and Solana. This concentrated risk-hedging strategy reflects institutional caution more than directional aggression, but its impact is amplified in an environment with reduced liquidity.

As the year approaches its end, many players have reduced exposures to secure gains for the period. This seasonal capital retreat compresses order book depth, increasing sensitivity to smaller operations and amplifying short-term volatility.

Discrepancy between gold and Bitcoin signals technical compression

An unusual pattern marks the current moment: while gold hits all-time highs above US$ 4,500 per ounce, Bitcoin recedes relatively. This decoupling contradicts historical risk-off correlations, suggesting a possible technical adjustment in the BTC/XAU pair.

On the four-hour chart, recurring rejections occur at the 200-period moving averages, both simple and exponential. As long as the price remains below this zone, the likelihood of lower tests remains high. Sideways consolidation persists until more robust confirmation triggers emerge.

Bullish divergences are beginning to appear: on the three-day chart, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) marks higher lows while the price forms lower lows. Similar setups preceded significant movements in previous cycles, signaling weakening selling pressure.

Miners face a critical period; shutdowns in Xinjiang impact the network

On the fundamental side, the Bitcoin network is experiencing heightened operational stress. The hash rate dropped 4% according to a recent report, the most severe since the first half of 2024. Simultaneously, a 9% monthly decline in price amplifies pressure on marginal operators.

A specific catalyst accelerated this capitulation: the shutdown of approximately 400,000 mining machines in Xinjiang resulted in a 1.3 GW capacity reduction in just 24 hours. The reallocation of energy to AI data centers, a higher-margin activity than mining, summarizes the ongoing strategic shift.

Estimates indicate a possible permanent loss of up to 10% of the global hash rate, concentrating mining among operators with access to competitive energy and cutting-edge infrastructure.

Efficiency as an entry barrier

The economic model of mining is deepening: for Bitmain S19 XP equipment, the breakeven electricity price has fallen from US$ 0.12 to US$ 0.077 per kWh in one year. This 36% cost compression forces a radical repositioning of the sector.

Paradoxically, this capitulation tends to reduce medium-term structural selling pressure. It eliminates marginal agents needing to liquidate assets to cover operational costs, removing a chronic headwind from the spot market.

Historically, drops in hash rate have been followed by positive Bitcoin returns in 65% of cases after 90 days. Periods of extended hash rate contraction produced an average return of 72% over six-month windows, suggesting miner capitulation tends to coincide with the final exhaustion of selling pressure.

The 30-day realized volatility has exceeded 45%, a level not seen since April 2025, signaling that the cleanup cycle is ongoing. At least 13 countries are already participating in mining with some form of state support, aiming for energy or monetary sovereignty, which sustains the long-term production chain.