Recently focusing on BTC's market movements, this wave of行情 is quite worth discussing.

Since early January, Bitcoin surged from around 87,000 to nearly 91,000 within about 38 hours, then quickly dropped back down. Many people were highly enthusiastic at the time, but I actually remain less optimistic.

The 91,000 level has been tested repeatedly by the market, it's not a new support point. The key is, if the price can truly stabilize above this area, it would indeed change some expectations. The problem is—currently, the candlestick structure isn't enough to give me sufficient confidence. Rather than rushing in to gamble, it's better to wait and see.

From a rhythm perspective, Bitcoin has been trading sideways within a very narrow range for nearly two weeks. In this environment, short-term ups and downs are purely probabilistic, with no clear trend. Without a definite direction, trying to do short-term trading now is just pure gambling. So my attitude is to wait for clear signals before acting.

Looking from a longer-term perspective, my judgment remains unchanged: this cycle might still continue in a bear market, with a timeframe of about half a year to a year. But it's important to clarify that a bear market doesn't mean a straight decline. During oscillations or slow declines, rebounds can sometimes be surprisingly large.

I've been watching a potential rebound target—Bitcoin could possibly surge again to around 98,000. But even so, the key question is: do we have enough risk management space? Before the trend is confirmed, playing it safe and observing is itself an effective strategy. Not every moment requires trading; sometimes, the greatest wisdom is to stay put.