Every year in the fourth quarter, the foreign exchange settlement season unfolds a familiar scene: a large number of business owners engaged in international trade holding US dollars, eager to convert them into RMB. But onshore quotas are limited, and the lines are too long. What to do? Some turn to USDT, hoping to leverage stablecoins to hedge temporarily.

The problem arises—when a large influx of US dollars floods into the stablecoin market, the price of USDT begins to fluctuate. The expected 1:1 redemption ratio starts to deviate, and discounts appear. You can buy 1 USDT for 0.99 or 0.98, which at first glance seems like arbitrage, but it actually reflects the real liquidity pressure in the market.

The underlying logic is straightforward: the peak season for overseas currency exchange demand combined with the ceiling on RMB conversion capacity causes stablecoins to become a temporary transit station. Small and medium-sized overseas business owners would rather convert USD into USDT for liquidity than wait in line for currency exchange. The cost of this liquidity is the slight discount.

For traders, negative premium essentially signals market imbalance—if used correctly, it can be an opportunity to buy the dip; if not, you might get caught. The key is to understand the true supply and demand story behind these premium fluctuations.