2026-01-03 05:25:32

The "4-year cycle" of Bitcoin is often spoken of as an absolute rule, but in reality, many cases confuse two different concepts. The certain rule is the "halving," which functions as a mathematical protocol embedded approximately every 4 years. On the other hand, the 4-year cycle itself is not necessarily inevitable.

The halving is a structural mechanism embedded in the Bitcoin blockchain, where miner rewards are periodically halved, reducing the supply. This is an absolute design rule and a mathematical fact that is unaffected by market psychology or external factors. Market cycles tend to revolve around this halving, but they do not necessarily synchronize perfectly. Understanding this distinction leads to more accurate market analysis.

View Original

This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.

10 Likes

Reward
10
8
Repost
Share

Comment

0/400

BridgeNomad

· 11h ago

ngl the halving isn't destiny, it's just the mechanic... people keep treating cycles like gospel when really they're just liquidity migration patterns around predictable supply shocks. seen too many portfolios get liquidated betting on symmetry that never showed up.

Reply0

ShibaOnTheRun

· 01-04 04:31

Half reduction period ≠ cycle. I've said this a long time ago, but people in the circle still love to confuse the two concepts.

View OriginalReply0

SchrodingerPrivateKey

· 01-03 16:32

The halving period ≠ 4-year cycle. Many people really confuse the two. These folks love to deify mathematical patterns; in fact, the halving period is the hard rule, and market cycles are just following the trend. It's a bit ironic that everyone is waiting for a 4-year cycle, but they overlook the real mechanism...

View OriginalReply0

MemeEchoer

· 01-03 05:54

Many people confuse the halving period with the 4-year cycle. In simple terms, it's just that mathematical patterns are being turned into mysticism. It's like using a Chinese almanac as a market analysis chart—you'll end up losing money sooner or later.

View OriginalReply0

SoliditySurvivor

· 01-03 05:53

The halving period ≠ 4-year cycle. These two are too often confused. Math is fixed, but the market is alive, understand?

View OriginalReply0

DAOplomacy

· 01-03 05:52

honestly the halving is the only real constant here... people conflate it with market cycles and then act shocked when price doesn't cooperate. path dependency cuts both ways, but yeah, distinguishing the actual protocol mechanics from the behavioral overlay? that's where most analysis falls apart. non-trivial gap between what's mathematically certain and what actually happens in markets.

Reply0

GraphGuru

· 01-03 05:42

Halving period ≠ cycle, the difference is really big haha --- Here we go again, some people always treat halving as a myth, but it's actually just code that’s hardcoded --- People really love to make up stories, the 4-year cycle sounds cool so they believe it --- Mathematical规律vs market hype, they are always two different things --- This distinction is indeed important, misunderstanding it can lead to being cut off --- Basically, it’s about mixing certainty and uncertainty together --- I just want to ask, is the 4-year cycle really a规律 or just a historical coincidence? --- Halving is just halving, there's no need to dress it up with a 4-year cycle --- Got it, so we've been analyzing Bitcoin with the wrong mental model --- This is the correct way to understand it, stop being brainwashed by public opinion

View OriginalReply0

UncleWhale

· 01-03 05:35

Half-life ≠ cycle, these two are often confused, which is really annoying.

View OriginalReply0