#2026CryptoOutlook #2026行情预测 | Is a Cold Crypto Winter Coming?

As 2026 begins, the crypto market stands at a critical crossroads. Analysts at global financial services firm Cantor warn that Bitcoin may be entering a prolonged “crypto winter,” with prices potentially facing continued pressure throughout the year. While the long-term outlook for Bitcoin — driven by institutional adoption, clearer regulations, and macro relevance — remains constructive, short-term trading activity is expected to stay weak, weighing on prices.
Cantor’s analysts point out that if the market is truly in a winter phase, the current decline is still in its early stages. Historically, Bitcoin bear cycles last close to 365 days from peak to trough, and by their estimate, the market is only about 85 days into this downturn. As fear spreads and marginal buyers retreat, Bitcoin could continue to drift lower or remain range-bound over the coming months. In this context, sentiment itself becomes a catalyst: fear of a crypto winter can actively create one.
Positive Policies, Weak Price Action
Ironically, early 2025 delivered some of the most crypto-friendly developments in years. The new U.S. SEC leadership signaled a softer regulatory stance, the Trump administration created a dedicated role for cryptocurrency and AI policy, discussions around Bitcoin strategic reserves gained traction, and a landmark stablecoin bill was introduced. Despite this, Bitcoin’s sustained price decline over the past three months has sharply reduced market optimism for 2026.
This disconnect has led many strategists to question whether the bullish catalysts of 2025 were already fully priced in. As the calendar turned, enthusiasm faded, liquidity tightened, and speculative capital became more selective.
Institutional Caution and Sideways Expectations
Several analysts now believe that institutional demand will turn more conservative in 2026. Rather than aggressively chasing upside, large funds appear focused on capital preservation, balance-sheet risk, and regulatory clarity. This shift makes it difficult for Bitcoin to break meaningfully higher in the near term.
Senior market analyst Linh Tran expects Bitcoin in Q1 2026 to focus on stabilization rather than acceleration. In her view, capital will slowly re-accumulate after months of distribution, with volatility remaining largely within the $80,000–$100,000 range. A strong early-year bull run, she argues, is unlikely.
Macro Theme of 2026: Fiat Devaluation
Nic Puckrin, co-founder of Coin Bureau, believes the dominant macro narrative of 2026 will be fiat currency devaluation. Under this theme, precious metals such as gold and silver are expected to benefit the most, as investors seek historically proven hedges. Bitcoin may also gain from this trend, but explosive upside surprises could be limited.
According to this view, Bitcoin could still reach new all-time highs, but those levels may not significantly exceed the previous peak near $126,000. If a new high does emerge, analysts warn it could be followed by another cyclical bear market, consistent with Bitcoin’s historical pattern.
Adding to cautious sentiment, Standard Chartered Bank recently slashed its 2026 Bitcoin price target from $300,000 to $150,000, signaling a major reset in institutional expectations.
Underperformance and Missing Catalysts
Since October 2025, Bitcoin and the broader crypto market have significantly underperformed U.S. equities and precious metals. Analysts interpret this extreme weakness as a sign that 2025’s catalysts failed to deliver sustained momentum, while fresh drivers for 2026 remain unclear.
The once-powerful “Trump rally,” fueled by regulatory optimism, ETF inflows, and strategic reserve narratives, has largely run its course. At present, the interest rate cut cycle appears to be the only remaining macro-level bullish factor.
Rate Cuts Failed to Save Bitcoin — So Far
The U.S. Federal Reserve cut interest rates in September, October, and December 2025, moves traditionally favorable for risk assets like Bitcoin. Yet, since the September meeting, Bitcoin has fallen approximately 24%, raising serious questions about its sensitivity to monetary easing in the current cycle.
This suggests that liquidity alone may no longer be enough. Structural demand, conviction buying, and new narratives are increasingly required to sustain higher prices.
Hidden Risk: Digital Asset Treasury Stress
One of the most under-discussed risks entering 2026 is stress within Digital Asset Treasuries (DATs). These companies accumulated large crypto positions near market peaks, but many now face mNAV (adjusted net asset value) falling below 1.0. CoinShares noted in December 2025 that the DAT bubble has already burst in several respects.
If market conditions worsen, some DAT firms may be forced to sell Bitcoin into an already liquidity-constrained environment — a scenario the market may struggle to absorb. Strategy CEO Phong Le hinted that Bitcoin sales could occur if mNAV drops further, although the company continues to raise capital to accumulate BTC, making forced liquidation a tail-risk rather than a base case.
New Information: What Could Change the 2026 Outlook?
Looking ahead, analysts identify several potential catalysts that could shift the narrative later in 2026:
Spot ETF adoption expanding beyond the U.S. into Asia and the Middle East
Sovereign or central-bank-linked Bitcoin reserve disclosures
Clear global stablecoin frameworks, unlocking new on-chain liquidity
Tokenization of real-world assets (RWA) driving institutional on-chain usage
AI-crypto convergence, especially in decentralized computing and data markets
Until these themes translate into real capital inflows, Bitcoin is likely to remain in a defensive, accumulation-driven phase.
Conclusion
The start of 2026 feels less like the beginning of a new bull cycle and more like a test of patience. A cold winter may not mean collapse — but it does imply slower movement, tighter liquidity, and higher standards for bullish conviction. For long-term investors, this phase may quietly lay the foundation for the next expansion. For short-term traders, caution remains the dominant strategy.
The market is not dead — but it is demanding proof.