#美联储货币政策 Looking at QCP's analysis, I am reminded of the days when everyone chased the latest trends. The Federal Reserve is still balancing "dovish rate cuts + hawkish inflation," with expectations of 2-3 rate cuts next year. On the surface, this is positive, but the real danger often lies in the details.

The key point is—AI companies' investment pace has far exceeded their revenue growth. The potential outflow of $2.8 billion in passive funds is not a small amount. I've seen too many projects feel secure just because of successful fundraising, only to collapse once cash flow can't keep up. The risk of revaluation of the stock market in 2026, in plain terms, is a matter of clearing the books.

On the crypto side, don't rejoice prematurely. Morgan Stanley Capital International is reviewing the eligibility of digital assets for index inclusion. The seemingly neutral "review" is actually a process of determining who should survive and who should die. Projects born from FOMO are now facing the market's ultimate test.

Defense should come early. When evaluating projects, don't just look at fundraising amounts and stories; consider cash flow, genuine users, and whether management's fundraising rhythm is rational. Those burning cash faster than revenue growth are not far from a blow-up. In this major adjustment, only those who survive will be the winners.