#美联储货币政策 Waller is up for another interview, and the focus of this conversation is worth pondering.

Over the years, observing project cycles and policy shifts, a pattern has become increasingly clear—the turning points in monetary policy often first reveal themselves through personnel changes. The easing cycle after 2008, the debate over balance sheet reduction in 2018, and the unlimited QE in 2020—all of these were preceded by evolutions in Fed chair nominations and internal disagreements.

I've been watching Waller closely. His dissent against rate cuts in July and his remarks on stablecoins at the DeFi conference—what do these details reveal? A Federal Reserve governor willing to openly endorse new financial tools was unimaginable a decade ago. Under Powell, the Fed has maintained a generally cold stance toward crypto assets, but Waller represents a new generation of policymakers with a different mindset.

Looking at Trump's selection logic, employment and economic stimulus are core issues. This suggests that the next phase of policy may lean toward easing—whether in the pace of rate cuts or in attitudes toward alternative assets. The historical comparison is interesting: after Trump took office in 2016, pushing for tax cuts and easing, it fueled the 2017 bull market. The context now is different, but the policy preferences seem to point in a similar direction.

A 15% nomination probability may seem low, but don’t forget—the final candidate for Fed chair often emerges only in the last stages. Waller is currently the most favored by economists and highly recognized on Wall Street, and this consensus alone carries weight. Past cases show that consensus candidates often manage to break through in the end.

What’s truly worth thinking about is: if Waller takes the top spot, how much would the Fed’s attitude toward digital assets and financial innovation change? This isn’t just about interest rate policy; it involves a complete overhaul of the regulatory framework. Having experienced the wild growth of 2017, the strict crackdown of 2018, and the balancing acts after 2020, how the next chapter unfolds will depend heavily on this personnel decision.