2026-01-02 08:25:53

Recent data reveals an interesting market divergence worth paying attention to. The CFETS RMB Index dropped to 97.6 by end of week, marking a roughly 3.8% decline since the start of the year. Here's the twist though—while the yuan managed to strengthen 4.2% specifically against the US dollar in the same period, the broader currency basket tells a different story. This gap signals mounting depreciation pressure from the yuan against other major currencies in the weighted basket. For traders and portfolio managers, this kind of cross-currency dynamic often impacts emerging market asset flows and could influence how different trading pairs behave across major exchanges. The divergence between bilateral and basket-weighted performance is exactly the kind of nuance that shapes macro positioning decisions.

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DataChief

· 6h ago

The RMB vs USD has risen, but the basket has fallen? This trick is pretty slick, arbitrage opportunities are coming --- The benchmark index fell 3.8% but the USD rose 4.2%... etc., this difference is huge and outrageous --- It's the same bilateral vs basket trick again, traders should be happy, emerging markets are going to get hit --- Devaluation pressure is secretly accumulating in the basket, it looks like it's rising but actually falling, a classic case of misdirection --- CFETS dropped to 97.6, is this a real re-pricing or just fluctuations? --- Cross-currency dynamics affecting liquidity? Basically, don't be fooled by the one-sided trend, watch how the entire basket moves --- RMB rising against USD and depreciating against other currencies... shorts are truly taking root in the basket

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SchroedingerMiner

· 6h ago

This move by the RMB is quite interesting; it appreciated by 4.2% against the US dollar, but when looking at the basket, it was immediately slapped in the face. This is the joy of arbitrage, right?

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AlphaWhisperer

· 7h ago

This move with the RMB is quite interesting. It’s so happy about the appreciation against the US dollar, but the other currencies in the basket are depreciating... The tactics are a bit deep.

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GasGuzzler

· 7h ago

The recent move in the RMB is quite interesting. While it appreciated against the US dollar, the basket depreciated, a classic "left hand versus right hand" situation. The RMB rose 4 points against the US dollar, but overall it still declined. Is an arbitrage opportunity emerging? CFETS dropped to 97.6, emerging markets are taking a hit. What does this data indicate? To be bullish on the RMB, one should also be optimistic about other currencies. This discrepancy... trading pairs are probably itching to move. At the 97.6 level, it feels like the basket's weights have been reshuffled again. Forget it, I’ll just look at the candlestick charts. These macro details are the easiest to be deceived by.

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ForumMiningMaster

· 7h ago

Renminbi appreciates against the US dollar, but depreciates against the basket? This kind of discrepancy really needs to be taken seriously; the arbitrage opportunity might be right here. --- The US dollar should have gone up for the basket to depreciate; this logic is brilliant... The trading pairs need to be restructured. --- CFETS has fallen below 98; is this wave of emerging market volatility about to pick up? --- The difference between bilateral and basket is so big, I don't know which one to follow... --- That's why you need to keep a close eye on the currency basket; looking at the US dollar alone is useless. --- The RMB's maneuvering is very precise; it's being eaten up tightly within the basket. --- Wait, appreciating against the US dollar while the basket depreciates? Something's not right. --- Macro positions need to be adjusted; this signal is too obvious. --- A 3.8% drop just happened this week? How come so fast?

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