Listen to me, if you click on this article expecting me to hand over some "sure-win secrets" or "automatic trading神器," you might be disappointed. Reality will teach you a harsh lesson—fasten your seatbelt, and let's land together in the real, turbulent world of crypto.

I've been navigating this market for years, witnessing bull and bear cycles, experiencing margin calls, and making profits. My deepest insight is: too many people chase after so-called "ultimate secrets," only to end up hurting themselves and others. Today, we won't talk about虚的, but focus on three seemingly insignificant things that can help you survive with dignity, or even have a good chance of thriving—I'll call them the market's "Three Blunt Knives." These tools can't guarantee profits on every trade, but they can significantly improve your win rate, helping you shift from passive prey to a calm hunter.

To be frank, these three blunt knives are: **Probability Thinking, Cycle Positioning, and Narrative Capture**. They won't give you precise entry and exit points, but they can lay out a strategic map for your investments.

**First: Probability Thinking—Embrace "Vague Correctness"**

The crypto market is essentially a complex system, full of black swans and chaos everywhere. Instead of chasing "accuracy down to the decimal," it's better to grasp the "big picture correctness."

Your strategy should be: bet on high-probability macro trends, rather than gambling on a specific buy point. For example, after a deep bear market, when market liquidity begins to recover and mainstream institutional products (like spot ETFs) achieve significant breakthroughs, the probability of an upward move is clearly higher than downward. At this point, what you need to do is not to painstakingly find the "lowest point," but to establish a sufficient position at relatively low levels.