Bloomberg Analyst Warns: Indicators Show Silver "Overheated" and Bitcoin "Bottoming Out," Both Facing Downside Risks in 2026

On January 2nd, Bloomberg analyst Mike McGlone posted on X platform stating that, using the key 50-week moving average as a technical reference, both silver and Bitcoin will face downside risks in 2026, but their market logic is entirely opposite.

As of December 31st, silver prices were approximately $72 per ounce, making its premium over the 50-week moving average as high as 73%. McGlone pointed out that this year-end price level is extremely rare in historical data, having only occurred once at the end of 1979.

It is worth noting that after silver prices surged to nearly $50 per ounce in early 1980, they immediately plummeted 52% the following year, falling to $15.50, and entered a decades-long slump;

It wasn't until 2025 that silver prices closed above the 1979 level again, significantly higher than the $32.20 in 1979. The current excessive premium level suggests the market may be overly optimistic, with risks of a correction accumulating.

In stark contrast to the "overheated" silver, Bitcoin is in a typical bear market "discount" state. At the time of writing, Bitcoin was around $87,000, trading at approximately 13% below the 50-week moving average, which usually indicates that its price has bottomed out, with a potential decline of nearly 55%. Therefore, Bitcoin's downside risk is not due to overheating but stems from lack of market confidence and the inertia of the downward trend.

In summary, McGlone's clear point is that although silver and Bitcoin both face downward trends, their risk origins and outlooks are entirely different. Silver's risk is driven by a price surge during market frenzy, deviating seriously from long-term trends; Bitcoin's risk is driven by a prolonged below-trend price in a bear market, with further downside potential.

This also reminds investors that the same technical indicator (50-week moving average) reflects completely different market logic and risk characteristics in different market cycles. Overall, in 2026, these two asset classes may face a shared downward price correction under their respective risk dynamics.

#MikeMcGlone #Bloomberg Analyst