#日本央行加息政策 The Bank of Japan's rate hike has been implemented, and the market is experiencing a long-awaited rebound. A number of influential figures are starting to speak bullishly, with Bitcoin's target price being raised to $1 million. Seeing this scene, I have to pour some cold water—this is precisely the time to stay alert.

Remember how every time favorable policy news came out in the past two years, everyone rushed in to chase the high? What was the result? Altcoins fell faster than anyone else. Now that the Bank of Japan's rate hike decision has been made, all the negative news has been exhausted and is flying everywhere. Traders are starting to place buy orders, and analysts are issuing dense buy signals. What do these signals indicate? They show that most retail investors already know this news, and the market has long since digested it.

The real opportunity has never been where everyone knows. Most of the money I lost over the years was lost following the crowd consensus. Gradual normalization sounds gentle, but after a short-term rally of the yen, it falls back and breaks support. These details precisely indicate that the market is not as optimistic as imagined. Negative real interest rates are still in effect, but that doesn't mean the market will rise straight up next.

Instead of chasing the target prices set by influential figures, ask yourself three questions: Do you have a risk management plan? Do you understand your holding period? Can you withstand a 50% drawdown? Most people can't answer these questions, yet they rush to go all-in. This is a sign of an impending liquidation.

The secret to surviving long on-chain is only one—always assume a black swan could happen at any moment, and trade with a risk-averse mindset, not driven by emotions.