Recently, some analysts pointed out that using the 50-week moving average as a technical indicator, both silver and Bitcoin may face correction pressures next year.

Let's start with silver. As of December 31, the silver price was about $72 per ounce, which is 73% above the 50-week moving average. How exaggerated is this premium? History shows us—back in 1980, silver reached an all-time high of nearly $50, then plummeted 52% to stabilize at $15.5. It wasn't until the end of 2025 that the annual closing price of silver finally surpassed the 1979 level of $32.2. In other words, this rebound is indeed impressive, but with such a large gap from the moving average, risks are accumulating.

Now, let's look at Bitcoin. Currently, Bitcoin is trading around $87,000, but it is actually trading at a 13% discount compared to the 50-week moving average—this signal is a bit different. From a technical perspective, this suggests Bitcoin may be bottoming out and rebounding, but if it truly returns to the moving average, the decline could be about 55%. That number sounds quite alarming, but from a mean reversion perspective, such an adjustment is consistent with market cycle characteristics.