According to the latest data from CME's "Federal Reserve Watch," the market has given a quite sober probability assessment: the chance of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in January is only 14.9%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate reaches 85.1%.

Honestly, a rate cut in January is basically unlikely. This is somewhat different from many people's initial expectations at the beginning of the year. In our crypto circle, many institutions and large holders are betting that rate cuts will come earlier, but reality has dealt a cold splash of water.

So, what does this mean for us? Let's break it down:

**The liquidity bubble has burst.** Many funds at the start of the year were hoping for a "central bank liquidity boost" to kick off a good start, but that expectation has now basically been dashed. Without this support, large whales will become more cautious, and the mood of waiting and watching will outweigh aggressive moves. The short-term excitement has eased.

**The high-interest-rate sword is still hanging.** As long as the rate cut remains uncertain, the narrative of "high interest rates suppress risk assets" will continue to echo in the market. For assets like Bitcoin that require liquidity infusion, this is a persistent background pressure and not a good sign.

**The real game is still ahead.** All eyes should now shift from January to March and beyond. The next Federal Reserve meeting will be the real battleground between bulls and bears.

In summary: the hope for a January rate cut can be let go of. The market is likely to enter a wait-and-see period, "waiting for signals." Until the path of rate cuts becomes truly clear, don't expect violent surges; more likely, there will be local oscillations and churning of positions.