2026-01-02 07:23:42

Recently, friends who are closely watching the market may have noticed that there is a divergence in market expectations regarding whether Bitcoin can break through the $100,000 mark in January.

As of January 2nd, the data shows that market participants do not consider the possibility of Bitcoin reaching $100,000 to be very high—the probability is pegged at 27%. But what if the target is lowered to $90,000? That’s a different story, with up to 91% of participants believing that this level can be reached.

Interestingly, the bearish side also has a clear expectation. If Bitcoin moves downward, the probability of breaking through the $85,000 threshold is 68%, while the chance of falling further to $80,000 is about 30%.

From these data, it can be seen that the current market expectation for Bitcoin in the short term is roughly oscillating within the $80,000 to $90,000 range, with the upside potential of breaking through $100,000 being priced in very strictly. This reflects the cautious attitude of market participants towards the current market conditions.

BTC1,74%

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SquidTeacher

· 12h ago

27% just to reach 100,000? Wake up There's a 91% chance at 90,000… this is a signal of the ceiling How long can this box stay between 80,000-90,000? The pessimists also know it well; with such a high probability of breaking 85,000… they have no confidence The market's cautiousness suggests that large funds have already priced everything in Reaching 100,000 is simply a dream that won't come true

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WenAirdrop

· 12h ago

27% chance to hit 100,000? Is the market saying "Dream on"? --- 91% to 90,000 and it's stable? Feels like this data might be exaggerated. --- Basically, it's just stuck in the 80,000-90,000 range, playing mahjong. --- Is 100,000 really that hard? Feels like every time it’s just a little short and can't break through. --- On the bearish side, 68% break 85,000, sounds a bit risky, everyone. --- Market cautious attitude? Isn't it just that no one dares to go all-in? --- Interestingly, everyone is actually betting that 90,000 can be reached, but there's no confidence in 100,000. --- How long will the consolidation between 80,000 and 90,000 last? I'm exhausted.

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BakedCatFanboy

· 12h ago

27% to reach 100,000? I don't believe that probability; it's probably the fund suppressing expectations again. 91% to reach 90,000? That sounds a bit too optimistic. Fluctuating between 80,000 and 90,000, basically waiting for news. Is 100,000 really that difficult? I think there's a chance before the Spring Festival. Don't be fooled by the data; market sentiment ratios are more important. Hitting 8.5万 and then dropping? That seems unlikely; the bottom support is quite strong. We'll see this wave in January; only dropping below 80,000 would be truly panic-inducing.

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ColdWalletGuardian

· 12h ago

27% chance to hit 100,000? Well, I think it still depends on future policies. --- 91% say it can reach 90,000, so it's pretty stable. --- The bears aren't that fierce either; only 68% have broken 8.5K. It feels like there's still support at the bottom. --- It's again in the 80,000-90,000 range. When can it break through? --- Cautious attitude? Honestly, it just means they haven't decided yet. --- 27% is too low; I think 100,000 is not a dream. --- This data has me a bit confused. Maybe going all-in directly is more straightforward. --- With such a high probability of 90,000, it feels like it's time to buy the dip, everyone. --- The probability of dropping below 80,000 is only 30%. So the risk doesn't seem that big.

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LiquidityWizard