In 2026, the market just opened, and international oil prices rose slightly, but this increase seems somewhat pale compared to the entire year's decline in 2025 — the largest annual drop since 2020. The short-term rebound is mainly constrained by geopolitical situations: Ukrainian drones continue to attack Russian refining facilities, and U.S. sanctions on Venezuela are tightening, directly reducing global oil supply. However, U.S. crude oil production has hit a record high, and market concerns about oversupply have not dissipated, which has become the ceiling for oil price rebounds. OPEC+ is about to hold a meeting, and industry insiders generally speculate that they will continue to hold back on increasing production. From the perspective of supply and demand imbalance in the energy market, this tug-of-war is expected to continue.