2026-01-02 07:23:10

Just as the New Year passed, the Federal Reserve delivered a swift and powerful punch to wake up all the restless market participants: interest rates remain firmly anchored between 3.50% and 3.75%, with no signs of loosening. Looking back at last year's 25 basis point rate cut, it now seems like a drop in the bucket. The message is clear—economic growth is still ongoing, inflation is still a problem, and hoping for the central bank to significantly loosen policy? Dream on.

The data is right here: the December dot plot showed only a 25 basis point rate cut expected for the entire year, like an unbreakable red line. Meanwhile, inflation is stuck at 2.4% and refuses to budge, while GDP growth has surged to 2.3%. This seemingly contradictory set of data is enough to shatter all dovish fantasies in the market.

Wall Street is now like a divided camp. The aggressive faction led by Goldman Sachs and a major bank is betting on rate cuts in March and June, creating a lively scene. Meanwhile, the conservative camp at another investment bank is on high alert, sticking to the bottom line of only one small easing for the whole year. Even more absurd, some voices in the market suggest not cutting at all in 2026, while others are celebrating a "150 basis point cut in one go." This torn expectation has already caused the market to shake violently.

The real uncertainty lies in the undercurrents of power transition. The current Fed chair's term ends in May, and if a super dovish figure takes over, the entire decision-making mechanism could be completely rewritten. Those predictions that seem so certain now could be torn apart in an instant.

The key January FOMC meeting is coming soon, and this meeting will be the weather vane for asset allocation throughout the year. Stocks, cryptocurrencies, bonds—everything will be influenced by this one shot. For ETH and other mainstream cryptocurrencies, the policy signals during this period will directly determine the direction of liquidity. The only thing to do now is to closely watch every statement from the Federal Reserve.

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TrustlessMaximalist

· 10h ago

The Federal Reserve is firmly holding interest rates, which is basically a clear message—there's no savior, DCA on your own is the way to go. --- Wall Street folks are arguing every day about whether it's dovish or hawkish, but I think they're just throwing a tantrum. Anyway, once the FOMC meeting starts, everything has to be reset. --- The real black swan is the power transition in May. By then, all current predictions could become invalid. This is systemic risk. --- In simple terms, the direction of liquidity entirely depends on the Fed's mood. The crypto circle has to take this as a matter of life and death, watching every statement closely. --- 150 basis points vs. zero rate cuts—these two camps are more and more absurd, and the market keeps tearing itself apart in this split. --- GDP is still growing, but inflation can't be brought down. Under this situation, the central bank can't take any action and can only wait. --- The key is the January meeting—this shot will determine the asset flow for the whole year. Whether cryptocurrencies can take off depends entirely on this.

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TokenRationEater

· 10h ago

The Fed's combination punch is really fierce. We retail investors can only wait to be cut. --- 2.3% GDP growth paired with 2.4% inflation—this data combo is hilarious. The dovish folks should wake up. --- Is Wall Street this divided? One says cut by 150 basis points, another says don't cut at all. Who can believe this? --- The power transfer in May is the real bombshell. Current predictions are all useless. --- The FOMC is coming soon. Will ETH still rise then? It feels like it's going to fall along with the market. --- Don't dream of the central bank printing money? We've been used to it for a long time. Keep holding and wait for the dip. --- The issue isn't how much the rate is cut, but who will be calling the shots at the Federal Reserve next. --- Liquidity has been squeezed by policies. The crypto world has indeed been tough lately. --- A 25 basis point rate cut is really a drop in the bucket. Last year, we waited in vain.

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OffchainWinner

· 11h ago

Dreaming of interest rate cuts again, wake up everyone --- Dovish fantasies shattered, the Federal Reserve's move is indeed fierce --- Wait for a change in leadership, predictions now are pointless --- Focus on the January meeting, that's the real key --- 2.4% inflation is a dead lock, interest rate cuts? Think again, brother --- That bunch on Wall Street are deeply divided, no one can say for sure --- Liquidity all depends on the Federal Reserve's mood, there's nothing we can do

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SelfStaking

· 11h ago

The Federal Reserve's combination punch is really fierce. Now it's just a matter of how January will play out. If they actually cut interest rates, that would truly be a reversal.

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