Will the fluctuations of Bitcoin and Ethereum on January 2nd mark a turning point?

The first major move of the new year saw Bitcoin break above 89,000, and Ethereum surge past 3,000, signaling a good start. Now, let's see if this momentum can be maintained.

Recently, market focus remains on Federal Reserve policy expectations, with various positive and negative news bombarding the market. Clear signals are expected next week. The US dollar's trend last week was in line with expectations. From the Russia-Ukraine negotiations, Europe's position appears limited, and naturally, the euro and pound lack the strength to challenge the dollar. Rate cuts do not mean the dollar will crash immediately. Post-pandemic, many countries' economies are under pressure, and the Federal Reserve has begun a rate-cutting cycle, with other countries following suit. Interestingly, many nations are actually forced to raise interest rates to prevent capital outflows, which reflects the true current landscape of global finance.

From a technical perspective, neither bulls nor bears have established a clear continuation pattern. The current strategy relies on shorting at resistance levels and going long at support levels. Today, I lean towards a bullish outlook, but I will also watch whether prices can fall afterward. Key resistance is around 89,400, and support is at 87,000.

If BTC continues to test below 89,000 and breaks above 89,400, a bullish wave may continue. Short positions can be entered around 90,000.

Trading ideas: Short between 89,888 and 90,288; add positions around 91,188-91,388; target the 87,900 break and the 87,300-86,800 range. Remember to manage risk and adjust flexibly based on your position.