#预测市场发展 Polymarket's data changes are worth paying attention to. The probability of BTC breaking through 100,000 within the year has fallen from a high to 11%, and the forecasted probability of reaching 95,000 has also dropped to 32%, while the probability of falling below 80,000 has increased to 24%. This shift not only reflects adjustments in price expectations but also a re-evaluation by market participants of the remaining time window.

From on-chain fund flow analysis, the volatility in these prediction markets often leads the sentiment shift in the spot market. When large funds switch from long positions to neutral or short, it usually corresponds to major participants taking profits on recent gains or re-pricing risks.

The key now is to observe whether this is a temporary adjustment signal or a precursor to a deeper trend reversal. It is recommended to closely monitor whale wallet movements and the inflow and outflow of funds on major exchanges, as these on-chain data often reflect true institutional attitudes earlier.