#Strategy加码BTC配置 Will there really be a rate cut in January? Market data is smashing your illusions!

Everyone, the latest data just released by CME FedWatch Tool hits hard — the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in January is only 14.9%! In plain words, this number is just to comfort you.

On the flip side, the probability of holding rates steady reaches 85.1%, which means that nine out of ten, the Fed will choose to stay put. This move has directly poured cold water on the crypto market!

To put it simply: stop dreaming about a rate cut in January saving the market. Your funds are frozen, and market expectations are ice-cold.

What does this mean? Let’s look at three points:

**First: The early-year capital frenzy will fall short**

Those waiting for the central bank to loosen monetary policy and expecting liquidity easing are now stunned. Liquidity expectations have instantly frozen, and the imagination of short-term rallying is gone. Large investors holding chips are watching silently; no one wants to be the last to take the plunge. The market’s support has weakened significantly.

**Second: The high-interest-rate sword will continue to hang**

As long as the rate cut remains just a rumor, risk assets will continue to be under pressure. The crypto market, which relies on loose liquidity to survive, is like being held down; Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other main coins are struggling to rise, and the short-term downward pressure cannot be alleviated.

**Third: Don’t fixate on January anymore**

Everyone should now look further ahead. The next key signal for determining the trend is the Fed meeting in March. The current market volatility is just the appetizer; the real battle between bulls and bears is still to come. Consider this month as a warm-up — don’t expect any earth-shattering moves.

**Summary:**

The story of a rate cut in January should come to an end. The upcoming game rule is “wait for signals” — until the Fed’s rate cut path becomes truly clear, don’t expect violent upward surges.

The most likely scenario is range-bound oscillation and chip rotation. In this structural market, reckless rushing will only turn you into cannon fodder.

**Operational advice:** Stay on the sidelines for now; don’t be led by daily fluctuations. Wait for a confirmed signal before jumping in. Keeping a steady mindset is more important than anything else.