2026-01-02 07:00:21

The Federal Reserve dot plot is about to be released. What will be the future direction of interest rate policy?

It is now early 2026, and the current federal funds rate remains in the 3.50%-3.75% range. The dot plot from December last year signaled that only a 25 basis point rate cut was planned for the entire year of 2025, followed by a pause — like a high-performance car suddenly braking, investors are still waiting for further easing policies.

According to the Fed’s latest projections, there will be only one 25 basis point rate cut this year, with the rate hovering around 3.4% by the end of the year. Meanwhile, inflation remains sticky at 2.4%, and GDP growth stays at 2.3%. From these data, the Fed is clearly not in a hurry to cut rates significantly.

What does Wall Street think? Opinions vary widely. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley expect two rate cuts#数字资产动态追踪 in March and June(, bringing rates down to 3.00%-3.25%. But JPMorgan is more cautious, expecting only one cut. Some more extreme voices talk about zero rate cuts, while others dream of a substantial 150 basis point cut. There are also bets that the new Fed Chair Powell will push for aggressive easing — after all, his term ends in May.

Optimists like Moody’s are counting on economic weakness and political pressure to drive three 75 basis point rate cuts, but the reality tells a different story: inflation remains sticky, and economic resilience persists, meaning rate cuts will be cautious and slow.

The real test will be the FOMC meeting on January 27-28. The decision made at this meeting will have a profound impact on the markets — not only affecting traders’ expectations but also directly influencing borrowing costs and the risk premium of crypto assets.

Everyone is waiting. Hawkish or dovish, this time a clear answer will be given.

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ShamedApeSeller

· 15h ago

Wait, is the Federal Reserve playing psychological warfare again? Just a 25 basis point hike and it's over? Are you kidding me or what?

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WagmiWarrior

· 15h ago

The Federal Reserve is just fishing, expecting us to accept a 25 basis point hike each time? --- Powell stepping down, Haskett taking over, can this wave really turn things around? --- All institutions are arguing, I just want to know how the crypto market will move after the 27th --- If inflation remains sticky and can't be eliminated, the dream of rate cuts is shattered, this is going to be interesting --- JPMorgan's cautious approach, I think this time it will only happen once --- Betting on a new chairperson to be aggressive and dovish, wake up, reality is harsh --- Interest rates are stuck here, borrowing costs are about to soar, BTC faces immense pressure --- FOMC on the 27th-28th, this time the decision will truly determine the trend for the second half of the year --- The hawks won, and our risk premium will need to be recalculated --- Three rounds of 75 basis points each? Moody's, you're dreaming too big, wake up

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AlgoAlchemist

· 15h ago

The Federal Reserve is about to stir up trouble again, and it seems this time the hawks are in the lead. Honestly, I don't believe any of the Hasset aggressive easing talk; the data is right there. JPMorgan is right, just one rate cut, and the crypto market will have to endure this year. Can the meeting on the 27th bring some good news? I really can't wait any longer. Goldman Sachs' two expectations of rate cuts are probably just a dream. Inflation is still so sticky; don't even think about cutting rates. The risk premium is the most painful part; BTC faces significant pressure.

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OnlyUpOnly

· 15h ago

The Federal Reserve really isn't in a rush this time, 25 basis points? So we've waited a year for this little? Alright, let's just keep lying flat.

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PanicSeller

· 15h ago

Really, if the Federal Reserve only cuts once this time, I’ll go all-in on short positions. --- Hawkishness will surely prevail. I bet that in five months, Hasset will be more hawkish than Powell. --- Laughing to death, are Moody’s people still asleep? 150 basis points? Wake up. --- See the outcome on the 27th. Holding positions and waiting passively is really exhausting. --- Instead of guessing what the Federal Reserve will do, it’s better to guess Bitcoin’s temperament. Neither is to be messed with. --- Inflation stickiness is right here. Cutting interest rates? Dream on, everyone. --- JPMorgan feels the clearest to me. Just one, the rest are all illusions. --- If borrowing costs don’t go up, my leverage is wasted. --- I’m actually more nervous about Hasset taking office. This one is serious.

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just_another_fish

· 15h ago

The Federal Reserve is really dragging its feet, raising 25 basis points at a time like squeezing toothpaste. The crypto world can't wait any longer. --- Wall Street is each singing its own tune. Goldman Sachs says two rate cuts, JPMorgan only wants one. Who do you believe? --- Basically, inflation is still sticky, and the Federal Reserve is reluctant to loosen monetary policy. We'll just keep sideways trading. --- Will Hasset be more dovish than Powell? Don't dream about it; reality will slap you in the face quickly. --- See the real deal on the 27th. If the FOMC remains hawkish this time, cryptocurrencies will really take a hard hit. --- 150 basis points rate cut? Just listen and wake up, bro. --- Inflation stickiness and economic resilience are both present. Want a big rate cut? No way in hell. --- Wait until January 27th. Anyway, whatever is said now is all talk. Let's watch the actions, everyone.

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