#日本央行加息政策 Seeing the Bank of Japan's move, a familiar feeling arose in my mind. The 30-year era of ultra-low interest rates has come to an end, with the benchmark rate rising to 0.75%, reaching a new high since 1995. Behind this number, there is actually a turning point of an era.

I remember after the 2008 financial crisis, global central banks all embarked on easing policies, with Japan taking the most thorough and prolonged approach. At that time, we all thought this was the new normal, and low interest rates would accompany us for a long time. But now, history keeps repeating lessons—nothing is eternal.

Ueda Haruhiko's statement is very important. He said, "There is still some distance from the lower bound of the neutral interest rate range," which means what? It means this is not the end, just the beginning. Some officials even believe that 1% is still too low. If the economy and prices develop as expected, further rate hikes are possible. The 95% probability of rate hikes shown by OIS has long incorporated all this into market expectations.

The weak yen is actually the driving force behind this shift. As imported inflationary pressures continue to accumulate, and the yen-dollar exchange rate hovers around 155, the central bank has little room to maneuver. This reminds me of many project cycles in the past—policy shifts are often not sudden but forced, adjustments made only after economic pressures reach a certain level.

Will there be more rate hikes next year? If the yen stabilizes, it might be more moderate; if the yen continues to weaken, a further 25 basis points increase is almost certain. How this pace unfolds is worth continuous attention. After all, the end of a 30-year cycle often means that a new cycle is just beginning.