2026-01-02 06:22:28

There are a bunch of sophisticated theories on the market that sound profound and mysterious, but they are often derived from practical experience, combining lessons learned from real-world practice and human intuition.

Only a few can truly design such theories; most are based on one's own cognitive framework and past experiences, unconsciously revealed.

If you insist on following these theories, you need to master them thoroughly and be prepared for long-term trial and error and adjustments. It's quite troublesome.

The key is, even if you do so, it may not necessarily be effective. Honestly, most of the times when people make money, luck is actually a factor.

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POAPlectionist

· 7h ago

You're absolutely right. Those so-called theoretical frameworks are essentially survivor bias; they are just strategies derived from lucky people. It really depends on the individual. Some can make money just by casual operations, while others still lose money even when following textbooks. That’s the harsh reality. Instead of stubbornly sticking to theories, it's better to observe the market's true nature, feel the rhythm, and remember that luck is unpredictable for anyone. Copying others' methods? That's even worse than guessing blindly; at least it saves some brainpower. It sounds simple, but when you look back at the moments when you actually made money, it was really just that moment's decision plus a stroke of luck.

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MetaverseHermit

· 7h ago

You're so right. A bunch of master theories talk a lot of nonsense, but in reality, it's just people with good luck playing the hindsight game. Copy that approach? Forget it, lose money for half a year first. In the end, it's just about getting lucky once and then starting to tell stories. Instead of studying theories, it's better to look at more failure cases. With such a small cognitive capacity, still wanting to copy others' methods—dream on. Luck plays the biggest role, and I've seen through that long ago. Now I just trade with the flow.

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StableGeniusDegen

· 7h ago

That's a great point. Theory, which sounds sophisticated, is actually just survivor bias combined with luck.

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FlyingLeek

· 7h ago

To be honest, luck really plays a big role, and I am a living example. Theories are all armchair strategies; who can really follow a step-by-step plan to make money? I stopped believing in that long ago; experience through ups and downs is what truly matters. Instead of studying all those theories, it's better to try a few more times and see. I just ask, at the moment of making money, who is still thinking about theories? Listening to others won't help; you have to stumble yourself to understand. When luck is on your side, everything seems right. This is the most valuable truth I have learned.

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JustAnotherWallet

· 7h ago

That's so true. After reading so many theories from big influencers, I finally realized that only by being personally beaten by the market can you truly understand. It's really just luck plus trial and error; no one needs to pretend to be so profound. No matter how perfect this set of theories is, it's just someone else's map; your terrain will always be different. It's better to honestly pay tuition fees; it's faster than reading a hundred guides. No matter how many theories there are, they can't withstand a black swan event. It's better to trust your own instincts. People who read theories all day tend to lose even faster, really.

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