2026-01-02 06:20:48

Looking at the historical prices of Bitcoin on New Year's Eve, from $0.29 in 2010 to now $87,500, the increase exceeds 3 million times. This is indeed one of the most impressive assets in human investment history. However, to be honest, this growth is not at all a straight line.

From 2011 to 2013, it rose from $1 to $1,000. Then in 2014, it plunged directly to $200. In 2016, it rebounded, from $500 to $20,000. In 2018, it crashed again, falling to $3,000. Each cycle generally experiences a retracement of over 80%. This is the reality.

New investors, don’t dream. Repeating the myth of 300,000 times growth is simply impossible. That was a dividend early players enjoyed, and it’s long gone. Now, Bitcoin’s market cap has already reached $1.75 trillion. To increase another 100 times to $175 trillion? That would surpass the total global stock market, who can believe that.

But a 10x space really exists. If Bitcoin becomes a global reserve asset, with a market cap reaching half of gold’s, the theoretical price should be around $750,000. Going from the current $87,000 to that level is an 8.6x increase.

What does it take to reach that level? Institutional allocation needs to increase from the current 5% to 15%. Sovereign funds need to start buying. Pension funds need to be allowed to allocate. Payment scenarios need to become widespread. These things are happening, it just takes time.

For investors, holding Bitcoin long-term is the easiest and most effective strategy. Don’t be scared by short-term fluctuations. Don’t try to time the market precisely—that’s nonsense. Dollar-cost averaging is the way to go—buy a fixed amount every month, regardless of the price.

Historical data shows: whenever you buy Bitcoin and hold for more than 4 years, you generally profit. Those who bought at the top of $17,000 in 2017 can still turn things around by 2021. The key is patience.

Currently, $87,000 is 30% below the all-time high of $126,000. From a long-term trend perspective, this price still seems reasonable. My suggestion is to buy in stages: buy 30% at $87,000, 40% at $80,000, and another 30% at $75,000. Set your target between $120,000 and $150,000, with a timeframe of 1 to 2 years.

BTC2,46%

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Layer3Dreamer

· 11h ago

theoretically speaking, if we model btc's market cap trajectory as a recursive function... the 10x thesis actually mirrors cross-rollup state verification mechanics. mass adoption = interoperability vector 📈

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GateUser-1a2ed0b9

· 11h ago

You're right, no one can withstand an 80% drawdown. Dollar-cost averaging is really the most brainless method; don't think about precise timing, that's all nonsense. I believe in the 4-year cycle; historical data indeed supports this. The strategy of entering in batches is reliable, just worried I might not have the patience to stick with it haha. A 10x potential sounds reasonable, but the key is when will institutions really start large-scale allocation. Don't be scared off by short-term fluctuations; those who sell early will regret it. The 750,000 target level is interesting, but we have to wait until institutions really start moving.

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BlockImposter

· 12h ago

DCA is really the only way out, don’t think about bottom-fishing, that’s all nonsense. Honestly, an 80% retracement doesn’t scare me at all; I’ve gotten used to it long ago. A 10x potential sounds great, but we have to wait for institutions to buy slowly, there’s no rush. Precise timing? Ha, I’ve never been that lucky in my dreams. Don’t look at the 30 million times; right now, buying Bitcoin is just a bet on the future, that’s all. Historical data looks good, but you have to live long enough to see it. Buying in batches sounds reasonable, but when it hits 80,000, I’ll be reluctant to buy again—human nature. 175 trillion surpasses the global stock market; I just can’t understand this logic. If holding a coin for 4 years without moving can make money, I would have achieved financial freedom long ago. There’s still room at 87,000, but it could also keep dropping.

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APY追逐者

· 12h ago

80% retracement has all been experienced. Those who still dare to go all-in now are true heroes. Dollar-cost averaging is truly amazing. I relied on this to get through an 18-year bear market. Don’t just look at the current 87,000; history will prove that the saying "you get what you pay for" doesn’t apply to Bitcoin. Institutions are still gradually building positions. We need to follow and eat the meat. The four-year curse has never missed. That’s why I sleep so soundly.

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FarmHopper

· 12h ago

An 80% retracement was really intense, scaring away many new investors. Dollar-cost averaging is indeed reliable, but it really tests human nature. Gradually deploying is still a rational approach; anyway, short-term results are hard to see. Wait, comparing the half-level of gold is a bit off. How long do I have to wait to use it as reserve assets... Anyway, I’m just lying here holding it. The 87,000 level really leaves no suspense; I’ll add some more if it drops. Tired of hearing "don't try to time the market precisely," haha, not many people actually do it. The four-year cycle pattern really seems to have never backed down.

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MonkeySeeMonkeyDo

· 12h ago

Dollar-cost averaging is really the only way out. Don't think about bottom-fishing; that's just self-deception.

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