2026-01-02 06:10:15

#比特币与代币化黄金的对比 🔥Gold prices hit new highs. What story is the market telling?

It's only 2025, and gold is already on a rocket ride—breaking through the $4,500 mark with a total annual increase of 64%, a level unseen since 1979. When geopolitical tensions tighten, safe-haven funds flood into gold. Meanwhile, the dollar has fallen by 10.6%, creating a perfect match.

But these surface factors are not the whole story. The real story lies in the崩溃 of the Federal Reserve's credibility.

Back in 1980, during Volcker's era, interest rates soared to 20%, causing gold to crash instantly. But now? Such decisive decision-makers are hard to find. Inflation remains sticky, employment is starting to weaken, and the Fed has begun cutting rates. The market is generally betting on continued easing in 2026.

More critically, political variables come into play. If policymakers truly want to replace the "doves" and weaken the Fed's independence, the situation becomes complicated—reminiscent of the chaos during the "Nixon Shock" in the 1970s, with inflation rebounding and the dollar depreciating once again.

So, gold's role has changed. It is no longer just a safe-haven tool but also a "hard asset" to hedge against policy uncertainty. Long-term interest rates are rising, which precisely indicates that the market is betting on the possibility of "policy losing control." Some analysts openly state: the more the Fed's credibility weakens, the stronger gold's purchasing power.

The big question in 2026 is looming: continue cutting rates to stabilize growth, or tighten to control inflation? How long can the dollar's dominance last? Will gold really surge higher? The script is just beginning to unfold. $BTC $ETH $DOGE

BTC1,74%

ETH4,01%

DOGE10,85%

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PositionPhobia

· 12h ago

Once the credibility of the Federal Reserve collapses, this wave of gold price increase makes sense. It's really not just about geopolitics.

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DefiPlaybook

· 12h ago

Based on on-chain data and historical benchmarks, the essence of this gold surge is indeed the erosion of the Federal Reserve's credibility— the 64% increase reflects the market's pricing in policy out of control. Notably, long-term interest rates are rising, creating an interesting paradox: risk aversion sentiment and inflation expectations are fermenting simultaneously. From three perspectives: First, the purchasing power of traditional safe-haven assets is being reshaped; second, the 10.6% depreciation of the US dollar directly erodes the foundation of reserve currencies; third, political variables threaten the independence of central banks far more than in the past. However, I think a key data point is missing here—the TVL growth rate of tokenized gold (like GLD, PAXG) and changes in on-chain liquidity. If this is truly a systemic risk asset reallocation, we should see obvious changes in collateral structures within DeFi lending protocols. It is recommended to pay close attention to the risk nodes of the 2026 rate cut cycle and political personnel appointments.

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GasFeeVictim