According to the latest data from CME "Federal Reserve Watch": the market believes there is only a 14.9% chance that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in January; meanwhile, the probability of holding rates steady is as high as 85.1%.

In plain language: stop dreaming, a rate cut in January is basically impossible. The market's main expectations, like your wallet, are frozen solid. What does this mean for the crypto world?

1. Short-term liquidity expectations are dashed: At the beginning of the year, some hoped for a "good start" and expected the central bank to loosen monetary policy. Now, this near-term expectation has been fundamentally shattered, removing an important pillar supporting short-term market volatility. Large whales will be more inclined to observe rather than rush in.

2. The narrative of "high interest rate suppression" continues: As long as the rate cut remains just a possibility, the mantra of "high interest rates suppress risk assets" will persist. This is a continuous background pressure for Bitcoin, which needs loose liquidity to thrive.

3. The real battle is yet to come: Everyone's focus must shift from January to March and beyond. The next meeting will be the true battlefield for bulls and bears.

Summary: The dream of a rate cut in January can be completely awakened from. The market will enter a period of "waiting for the next clear signal." Until the path of actual rate cuts becomes clear, don't expect violent surges; more likely, it will be structural oscillations and chip exchanges. $BTC $GT $ETH