#日本央行加息政策 Seeing the Bank of Japan finally take this step—raising interest rates to 0.75%, a thirty-year high—my first reaction isn't excitement but a reminder to be more cautious.

I understand the logic behind this decision: the yen is under significant depreciation pressure, wages are growing steadily, and inflation expectations remain high. But the key point is that Governor Ueda Haruhiko clearly stated at the press conference—they believe they are still far from the "neutral interest rate," and some officials even think 1% is still too low. What does this mean? They will continue to raise interest rates.

It reminds me of a common mistake: many people rush to adjust their asset allocation when they see the central bank turning hawkish, often doing so at the most volatile times. Japan's thirty-year ultra-low interest rate environment has already shaped market expectations, and the normalization process will inevitably involve adjustments—rising bond yields, exchange rate fluctuations, and potential pressure on the stock market.

The safest approach is actually quite simple: first, review whether your positions are overly concentrated in interest rate-sensitive assets; second, clarify your investment horizon—if you're in it for the long term, short-term volatility is actually an opportunity to rebalance; third, maintain sufficient cash reserves to give yourself room to handle uncertainties.

The biggest test of such macro turning points is never how precise your forecast for the future is, but how steady your mindset remains.