#美联储降息 Taxation clearance wave is coming, can the crypto world survive? On-chain data speaks

A few days ago, I came across a message—OECD has developed the "Crypto Asset Reporting Framework," which will be officially implemented in 2027. This year, 48 countries have started collecting crypto transaction data. The circle immediately exploded, with many shouting "The anonymous era is over" and "A market crash is imminent." But after a week of analyzing on-chain data and news, I arrived at the opposite conclusion.

On-chain data tells the truth

This week, BTC exchange outflows surged by 15%, and whales (addresses holding 1000+ BTC) are still aggressively accumulating. These players aren’t fools; continuing to buy at this time—what does that mean? It indicates they don’t see this as bad news but rather as a good entry point.

ETH is also holding steady. The locked-in value in DeFi protocols hasn't decreased, network activity remains steady, and trading volume hasn't dropped. The Fear & Greed Index is stuck in neutral, and the market hasn't overreacted. In fact, those who panic and sell upon hearing the news are the most frantic.

Why does history tell me this is a positive sign

Simply put, the CARF framework aims to eliminate "financial black holes"—money laundering, tax evasion, and similar issues. In the short term, it will likely scare some funds into risk aversion, which is normal. But look at how past bull and bear cycles have played out.

Between 2017 and 2020, once the FATF (Financial Action Task Force) compliance standards were introduced, the market first experienced a shakeout, then what happened? Traditional financial giants like BlackRock and Fidelity started entering. Why? Because regulations became clearer, risks became transparent, and they dared to invest.

What is the other side of compliance? Bad projects get weeded out, industry trust improves, and more legitimate players are attracted. This time with CARF—data collection starting in 2026 and exchange in 2027—there’s ample time for the market to adapt. Plus, decentralized ecosystems (privacy coins, DeFi, etc.) will accelerate innovation to cope, possibly creating new growth tracks.

How I see the future market

In the short term, market sentiment will definitely be stirred up. BTC might test the $40K support level. But based on on-chain accumulation signals, this isn’t a dump; it’s accumulation. So, the decline isn’t the end but a signal to buy.

Looking further ahead: the implementation of regulations actually clears the uncertainty hanging over the market. Coupled with the 2025 halving cycle and continuous institutional compliance investments, the driving force for a bull market will only grow stronger. CARF isn’t the end of crypto; rather, it’s a milestone marking its maturity.

What’s the strategy? Although leading assets like BTC and ETH are being accumulated, a small portion of funds can explore innovative opportunities in the privacy sector. But the main focus should remain on the "compliance-driven growth" logic. Opportunities created by panic are often the most valuable. Data is king—buy on dips and accumulate.