#数字资产动态追踪 Beware! The Federal Reserve's start in 2026 may show an unexpectedly hawkish turn, with interest rates stuck above 3.5%, and market expectations completely shattered. Can your holdings withstand this wave?

Currently, the disagreements among institutions are frighteningly large. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley favor a moderate approach with two rate cuts within the year, one in March and another in June. But JPMorgan is hesitant, only willing to bet on one rate cut by the end of the year. Even more extreme are some market factions, ranging from steadfast zero rate cuts to wild guesses of a 150 basis point plunge—everyone is shouting something, and the market is completely divided.

So, whose opinion should you trust? The key lies in these three indicators. First, core PCE must fall below 2%; otherwise, inflation remains a tight constraint for the Federal Reserve. Second, the unemployment rate should not break above 4.5%; crossing this line would force the Fed to seriously consider easing. Third, Powell’s term expires in May, and the frontrunner, Haskett, is known as a "dovish rate cutter." If he takes over, the policy direction could change instantly.

What does this mean for the crypto market? Simply put—liquidity is life. When rate cuts arrive, opening the tap slightly, leading assets like $BTC and $ETH may be the first to react, and institutional FOMO funds might rush in. But if rate cuts don’t happen and high interest rates continue to drain liquidity, the market will have to struggle in extreme panic. At that point, bottom-fishing should be especially cautious.

The next key event is the FOMC meeting on January 27, which will be the first real turning point. Any hawkish signals from the new dot plot will shake the market. Before that, every inflation report and employment data release feels like a preview of the lottery results.

The old question remains for you—whose side are you on? Bet on dovish policies taking off, or believe hawks will continue to tighten? Do you plan to hold your spot and relax, or have your shorts ready for a rebound, or are you waiting for a deeper dip to go all-in?