#比特币价格走势 After reviewing these five rounds of policy storms, one detail is worth pondering—each time regulation is implemented, the market indeed takes a short-term hit, but the long-term logic remains almost unchanged. In 2013, banning banks from participating directly cut off retail channels, causing Bitcoin to drop from $1,100 to over $400; in 2017, shutting down exchanges saw a drop from $4,300 to $3,000 within a week; in 2021, power outages at mining farms caused a drop from $50,000 to $35,000 in May. They all seem like fatal blows, but looking back—by December 2017, Bitcoin rose to $19,665, and by November 2021, it reached $68,000.

The current issue isn't the policies themselves, but that the market structure has changed. Twelve years ago, domestic retail investors held the main pricing power. Now? Wall Street ETFs, institutional holdings, sovereign funds—these are the real price supports. The negative premium of USDT indicates that some domestic investors are eager to exit, but this looks more like panic selling driven by fear, not a trend reversal.

The key is to observe the movements of CEXs and the progress of subsequent enforcement actions. If it's just risk warnings without concrete actions, this round of decline might simply be emotional release. But if actual regulatory measures—such as restricting IPs, freezing accounts—are involved, then a reassessment of positions is necessary.

The pattern of history is clear: policy changes alter the path but not the direction. It remains to be seen whether this is another "bad news fully priced in" or a genuine structural adjustment.