You need to clearly see what kind of cards Bitcoin is holding as it enters 2026.

Looking back at December's trend clearly illustrates the point. At the beginning of the month, institutions were doing asset allocation at year-end, combined with tax planning needs, pushing Bitcoin to $93,258 on December 3rd. At that time, the market was even shouting "Can we break 100,000 by New Year's Day?" But what happened? No. Instead, there was a full two-week decline, and by mid-December, it directly dropped to $85,827.

However, there has been some improvement in the past two days, with the price finding support around $87,500, and today rebounding to about $88,700. This move signals one thing—the market is digesting the positive news for 2025, but remains cautious and watchful for 2026.

This week, two core things need attention.

First, the "Four-Year Cycle Curse." The financial institution Cantor recently released a report suggesting that the crypto market might experience its first decline year since 2022. Historically, Bitcoin has shown a clear four-year pattern—2014, 2018, and 2022 were correction years, and 2026 is also within this window. The key question is: **Can it hold above $90,000 this week?** If trading volume can't pick up and it can't break this level, the bears will strongly push back with the "cycle top" argument, and market sentiment could completely reverse.

On the other side is the macro-level "hawk-dove" debate within the Federal Reserve...