#预测市场 Looking at the data from Kalshi's prediction market, I have to say one thing—this is just legalized gambling. Don't be fooled by the name "prediction market."

From the beginning of the year, Gemini's probability shot from 30% directly to 86%, and ChatGPT's likelihood dropped from 41% to 8%. What does this rapid reversal over just a year indicate? It shows that the funds here are chasing the latest narratives rather than making rational predictions. A trading volume of $14.08 million sounds substantial, but think about it—how much of this money is truly based on technical judgment, and how much is driven by FOMO and emotional chasing?

I've seen too many people get tricked into these kinds of "market consensus." The easiest phenomenon in prediction markets is the herd effect—once a certain option starts to lead, subsequent funds rush in, eventually creating a self-fulfilling prophecy. When the market settles, the smart money that had been early is the one making profits, while most latecomers get caught.

If you really want to participate in these kinds of things, remember a few points: First, don't be fooled by high probabilities; it doesn't mean the risk is low. Second, always ask yourself, "What is the true reason behind this consensus?" Third and most importantly—don't gamble with money you can't afford to lose. Market predictions have never been free; the cost is your principal.